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USD/CAD: today is the decision on the interest rate in Canada 13/07/2016

Technical analysis and trading recommendations -

Today (at 14:00 GMT) the Bank of Canada decides on interest rates. Now the interest rate in Canada is at a level of 0.5%, and, according to market participants, the Bank of Canada is likely to be inactive in the "next few years" in this direction. Growth in housing prices in some regions of Canada, as well as record levels of household debt will constrain the Bank of Canada from easing monetary policy, despite retreating oil prices and other weak macroeconomic indicators of the economy of this country.

After Friday published data on the US labor market, including a strong indicator of the NFP, the US dollar rose in the pair USD / CAD. The number of US jobs outside agriculture (the NFP) in June increased by 287,000 (vs. 175,000). The unemployment rate, though increased to 4.9% (vs. 4.8% and 4.7% in May), however, it remained stable below 5.0% for several consecutive months.

At the same time, Canada also published a rather weak data on the labor market in this country. The unemployment rate in Canada fell in June (6.8% against 6.9% in May). However, according to economists, the decline is in the number of people who are looking for work. Reducing the number of jobs in Canada in June amounted to 700 against the expectation that the number of jobs will grow by 5000.

However, even if the Bank of Canada left interest rates today in the country unchanged, trading in the Canadian dollar expected volatility during this period.

However, in general, for a couple of USD / CAD more strongly influenced by the dynamics of the US dollar and the oil price, which has recently been showing signs of, if not a reversal of the upward trend, then the apparent slowdown.

Considering also, though more cautious, but still continued to tighten monetary policy and the Fed stable data as the US economy, the USD / CAD pair will tend to increase in the medium term.

Wednesday, 13 Jul, 2016 / 11:08

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