US Dollar losing the grip around 101.60

The greenback, in terms of the US Dollar Index, has now surrendered its initial gains and has returned to the negative ground, finding some support near 101.50 for the time being.

US Dollar propped up by rate hike bets

The index is fading part of yesterday’s modest advance amidst a choppy first half of the week and firm expectations of a rate hike by the Federal Reserve at its meeting on March 15.

In fact, and according to Reuters, the probability of higher rates next week is just above 85%. However, as market participants seem to have already priced in a 25 bp hike, the upside momentum in the buck appears somewhat exhausted while investors keep waiting for the next US Payrolls as some sort of ‘confirmation’ of the Fed move (if results come in as expected).

In the meantime, yields in US money markets keep trading in the upper end of the recent range, somewhat limiting the downside of the index.

Later in the session, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism index is due along with trade balance figures for the month of January.

US Dollar relevant levels

The index is retreating 0.07% at 101.60 and a break below 101.32 (55-day sma) would open the door to 101.22 (low Mar.1) and finally 101.15 (20-day sma). On the flip side, the initial up barrier aligns at 102.05 (61.8% Fibo of the 2017 drop) ahead of 102.17 (high Mar.3) and then 102.27 (high Mar.2).

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