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Trading chances via Dow Theory calendar week 12/2016


In the hourly chart we can see a very young uptrend that is within its correction zone, where it is already relatively close to the lower edge of this correction zone. As long as the price remains in this green zone, the DAX has a chance of continuing this young trend. But if we get a close below the point three at 9895 then we will have a trend break, and a situation such as this – a trendless one – forces us to stay on the sideline.



This US index is in a downtrend in this trend size, and within this downtrend it is in a movement. The term “movement” signifies a price below – or above in an uptrend – the last point two. The further a price is into a movement, the higher the probability of a correction. Well, here we are relatively far into the movement and the next correction is not so far away. The next chance for a short trade will become available if the price moves back into the red correction zone, creates several reversal signals and begins to fall down once more.



In the Forex market we now have an interesting chance in the EUR.SEK pair. As we can see, the small trend is facing upwards and is coming out of its green correction zone. With a stop below the green zone we can speculate on the price increasing up to the last point two (see the red arrow). But be careful, because the small trend is running against the red upper trend. The upper trend is facing downwards. In this case, it would be better to trail the stop very close.



This value from the German main index is in a short-term downtrend, where it is in a movement. But this red trend is running against the upper trend (green), which is facing upwards. In this situation, it is better to wait for a trend break – which would happen with a close above the last point two at €17.52 – and the development of a new uptrend. Then we would be able to go long, working together with the upper trend.


I hope you will remain favorably disposed towards me and always remember: the journey is the reward!

All the best

Markus Gabel

Trader asset management


AgenaTrader Trading Software

IMPORTANT NOTE: Exchange transactions are associated with significant risks. Those who trade on the financial and commodity markets must familiarize themselves with these risks. Possible analyses, techniques and methods presented here are not an invitation to trade on the financial and commodity markets. They serve only for illustration, further education, and information purposes, and do not constitute investment advice or personal recommendations in any way. They are intended only to facilitate the customer's investment decision, and do not replace the advice of an investor or specific investment advice. The customer trades completely at his or her own risk. Please refer to the current version of the Terms and Conditions.

Thursday, 24 Mar, 2016 / 4:44

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