EURUSD, Daily
EURUSD is yet once again trading at the same resistance it failed to penetrate yesterday. After moving lower the pair found support at 1.1000 support. Earlier on the day the disappointing US jobless claims figures failed to move market significantly but later in the US session buyers stepped in at around 1.1000 support and sent EUR higher. Higher low formed yesterday suggests that EURUSD will try to push higher today. At the time of writing the pair has reacted lower from the daily resistance created by rising trend channel and 1.1135 resistance. However the pair has also made a high print of 1.1134 (yesterday’s high was 1.1125) and found support from 1.1080 while the next significant intraday resistance level is at 1.1188. I am expecting EURUSD to move higher and towards the 1.1188 intraday resistance today. The nearest daily support and resistance levels are at 1.0930 and 1.1135.
Greece submitted its reform proposals at the 11th hour as it seeks an additional EUR 53.5 bln ($59 bln) in bailouts. The 10-page document included many reform measures which had been sought by the EU, including government spending cuts for pensions. PM Tsipras also agreed to shift a variety of goods and services into higher sales tax categories. In return for accepting even harsher measures than previously proposed, the government wants a commitment from creditors to further negotiate long-term debt conditions. Officials, including those from the IMF, will analyze the proposals prior to Saturday’s EU finance ministers meeting, prior to the EU summit on Sunday. Risk appetite is likely to extend higher into the weekend on this news.
Greece’s concessions could save the day. The last minute reform proposals are similar creditor’s proposal from June 24, which voters rejected in a referendum last Sunday. The new proposals are to be checked for feasibility and sustainability by ECB, European Commission and IMF prior to the Eurogroup meeting Saturday and the summit on Sunday, according to newspaper reports, but initial reviews suggest Tsipras made more concessions, while also asking for a review of debt sustainability. The important part here is to stress that this doesn’t need to be haircuts, which no-one is asking for, but could also be a further extension of the debt schedule and lower interest rates, something finance ministers already discussed last year. Although officials will likely want to see signs that reforms are not just promised but actually implemented, before committing to such a move.
ECB ultimatum may have aided reform concessions. A dutch newspaper reported that the ECB will terminate ELA as of 6 am Monday morning if Greek reform proposals are deemed too light and Greece is unwilling to cooperate with withdrawal from the Eurozone. The reports cites an unidentified EU official and the ECB’s final ultimatum may have helped to produce somewhat of a turnaround in Greece, which seems to have finally ended the posturing and put meat on the reform proposals.
U.S. initial jobless claims surged 15k to 297k in the July 4 week, following the 11k jump to 282k in the prior week (revised from 281k). This brought the 4-week moving average to 279.5k versus 275k (revised from 274.75k. Continuing claims jumped 69k to 2,334k in the week ended June 27 from 2,265k in the prior week (revised from 2,264k). The larger than expected increase in jobless claims is likely more a function of the July 4 holiday than a change in the labor market, even though the BLS said there was nothing unusual in the data.
Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (percentage change from previous day’s close)
This morning EUR is trading higher while JPY is down again as the need for safe haven dissipates. Other currencies’ performance remains mixed and without strong directional bias. USDJPY has rallied to a resistance at 122.08 while EURJPY battles with a resistance level at 135.72. CADJPY is nicely up from the support at 94.83 and same applies to GBPJPY that has rallied from 185.02 support. NZDJPY has rallied to a resistance at 82.51.
Significant daily support and resistance levels for these pairs are:
Main Macro Events Today
Japan PPI dropped 2.4% y/y in June, from -2.2% y/y in May, and -2.1% in April. For the month, PPI declined 0.2%, ending a string of 3 straight gains. The data are having little impact as the focus is on the rally in risk assets on hope Greece can strike a deal now they have finally submitted reform proposals. The Topix is up over 1% while JGBs are lower as safety trades are unwound. JPY is also losing ground versus the EUR and USD.
Canadian Employment Change: employment is likely to fall 15.0k in June (median -7.5k) after the 58.9k surge in May. Canada has yet to put together back to back gains this year. So far, we have seen an oscillating pattern of gains (Jan, Mar) followed by declines (Feb, Apr). Will June be different? We are betting not, especially given that May was the largest one month gain since October of 2014′s 62.2k. An as-expected drop would be supportive of another rate cut this year.
US Fed Chair Yellen’s Speech
Please note that times displayed based on local time zone and are from time of writing this report.