EURUSD, Daily
Technical picture in EURUSD is bearish with price moving outside the bearish wedge I've had on the chart for quite some time now. Resistance area below 1.1239 is likely to turn price lower today and with no high quality support levels in proximity of current price action I am expecting to see another strong sell off today. My target for todays move is 1.0937 as this level is likely to turn price higher again. Important daily support and resistance levels are at 1.1207 and 1.0930.
An agreement at technical level with Greece needs to be on the table today, in time for Finance Ministers to sign off the agreement at the Euro group meeting Wednesday evening ahead of Thursdays EU summit. Even if this goes without a hitch, Tsipras will still have to get the deal through parliament in Athens and then through the German parliament. So plenty yet that could go wrong and trigger another flip in fixed income markets.
Yesterday US new home sales rose 2.2% to a 546k pace in May after rebounding 8.1% to 534k in April (revised from 517k) from the 9.4% March drop to 494k. That knocked the months supply to 4.5 from 4.6 (revised from 4.8). Regionally, sales were split with gains in the Northeast and West, and declines in the Midwest and South. The median sales price fell 2.9% to $282,800 from $291,100 (revised from $297,300). Prices are down 1.0% y/y versus the 6.0% y/y clip in April. Data are better than expected. The U.S. Markit flash PMI manufacturing index slipped to 53.4 in June from Mays 54.0 and is down from Aprils 54.1. Its a third straight monthly decline and is the weakest reading since October 2013. However, employment and new orders were higher, with the former at its fastest pace since November. Average cost burdens were up for a second straight month.
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