Trading news

The Market 30/09/2014

EUR/USD moves in a consolidative mode

EUR/USD moved in a consolidative mode between our 1.2693 (R1) resistance line and 1.2660 (S1) support level. There were one or two attempts to break above the 1.2693 (R1) zone but none of them found much support and the pair is now back in the aforementioned range. The RSI found support at its 30 line and is pointing up, while MACD poked its nose above the trigger line. These momentum signs increase the possibilities of a moderate rebound before the bears prevail again. In the bigger picture, as long as the pair is printing lower peaks and lower troughs I maintain my view that the overall path remains to the downside. I still expect the rate to challenge the low of the 13th of November 2012, at 1.2660 (S1).

• Support: 1.2660 (S1), 1.2500 (S2), 1.2460 (S3)

• Resistance: 1.2693 (R1), 1.2760 (R2), 1.2825 (R3)

GBP/USD remains close to 1.6380

GBP/USD declined on Monday but remained slightly below the support-turned-into-resistance line of 1.6280 (R1). The dip below that barrier confirmed that the 9th -19th of September up move was just a 38.2% retracement level of the 15th of July – 9th of September decline, and could trigger extensions towards our support line of 1.6160 (S1). However, looking at our momentum studies, the RSI remains below its 50 line but is pointing up, while the MACD seems ready to cross above its trigger line. This indicates that the downtrend is running out of momentum and increases the possibilities that the rate may attempt another bounce.

• Support: 1.6160 (S1), 1.6070 (S2), 1.6000 (S3)

• Resistance: 1.6280 (R1), 1.6400 (R2), 1.6500 (R3)

USD/JPY fails to close above 109.25

USD/JPY advanced on Monday and tried to rally above the 109.25 (R1) line. However, the pair failed to close above that resistance zone. As long as the price is trading above the blue uptrend line and above both the moving averages, I consider the near-term upside path to be intact. Nevertheless, a clear break above the 109.25 (R1) zone is needed to trigger extensions towards the psychological line of 110.00 (R2). In the bigger picture, I still see a newborn long-term uptrend, since, after the exit of a triangle on the daily chart, the price structure remains higher highs and higher lows above both the 50- and the 200-day moving averages.

• Support: 108.25 (S1), 107.40 (S2), 106.80 (S3)

• Resistance: 109.25 (R1), 110.00 (R2), 110.70 (R3)

Gold still trading sideways

Gold remains trapped in a range between the 1208 (S1) support area and the resistance of 1225 (R1). Since the precious metal seems to be oscillating between these two lines, a break in either direction is likely to determine the forthcoming near-term bias. On the daily chart the price structure still suggests a downtrend, but our daily momentum indicators give me an extra reason to remain flat. The 14-day RSI exited its oversold field and is now pointing up, while the daily MACD shows signs of topping and looks ready to cross below its signal line.

• Support: 1208 (S1), 1200 (S2), 1180 (S3)

• Resistance: 1225 (R1), 1240 (R2), 1260 (R3)

WTI breaks above 94.00

WTI moved higher yesterday, breaking above 94.00, the upper boundary of the range it’s been trading since the 8th of September. I would expect the move above 94.00 to have further bullish extensions and target our resistance hurdle of 96.00 (R1) in the near future. The continuation of the bullish wave is also supported by our daily momentum studies, where the RSI moved above its 50 line and is pointing up and the MACD already above its trigger line is approaching its zero line.

• Support: 94.00 (S1), 92.00 (S2), 90.60 (S3)

• Resistance: 96.00 (R1), 96.70 (R2) , 97.80 (R3)



Tuesday, 30 Sep, 2014 / 8:01

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