Trading news

The Market 01/08/2014

EUR/USD quiet ahead of the NFPs

EUR/USD moved in a consolidative mode on Thursday, remaining between the support level of 1.3365 (S1) and the key resistance of 1.3400 (R1). I still see a short-term downtrend on the 4-hour chart and a clear move below the 1.3350/65 zone could drive the rate towards the next support barrier at 1.3300 (S3). Nevertheless, much of today’s movement will depend on the US employment data coming out later in the afternoon. On the daily chart, I see lower highs and lower lows below the 50- and the 200- day moving averages, with the former being below the later one and pointing down. This keeps the long-term path of EUR/USD to the downside.

• Support: 1.3365 (S1), 1.3350 (S2), 1.3300 (S3).

• Resistance: 1.3400 (R1), 1.3425 (R2), 1.3445 (R3).

USD/JPY remains elevated.

USD/JPY climbed on Wednesday, violating three resistance barriers in a row and hitting the resistance zone of 103.00 (R1). On Thursday, the rate moved in a consolidative mode, remaining below the 103.00 (R1) bar and above our support of 102.75 (S1). The outlook remains positive and a clear break above 103.00 (R1) will perhaps trigger extensions toward the next obstacle at 103.40 (R2). I would ignore the overbought reading of the RSI, as the indicator found support at its 70 line and is now pointing up. On the 1-hour chart, the 14-hour RSI rebounded from its 50 level, while the hourly MACD, already positive, looks willing to move above its signal line. This corroborates my view for further upside in the near future.

• Support: 102.75 (S1), 102.65 (S2), 102.25 (S3).

• Resistance: 103.00 (R1), 103.40 (R2), 104.15 (R3).

EUR/GBP somewhat higher

EUR/GBP moved somewhat higher to reach the resistance zone of 0.7935 (R1). Although the overall trend remains to the downside (marked by the downtrend line drawn from back the 11th of April), the positive divergence between our daily momentum studies and the price action remains in effect, confirming the bears’ lack of momentum. The rate continues to confirm my view that this trend is not the best to rely on as it is likely to be at its latest stages. I would regain my confidence on the downtrend upon a dip below 0.7875 (S2). Such a dip would confirm a forthcoming lower low and could trigger extensions towards 0.7815 (S3).

• Support: 0.7905 (S1), 0.7875 (S2), 0.7815 (S3).

• Resistance: 0.7935 (R1), 0.7980 (R2), 0.8030 (R3).

Gold breaks below 1290

Gold tumbled yesterday, breaking below the support zone of 1290 and finding support at the 61.8% retracement level of the 3rd June – 10th July uptrend, at 1280 (S1). Such a move confirms a forthcoming lower low and shifts the outlook cautiously to the downside. A decisive dip below the 1280 barrier is likely to have larger bearish implications and could target the next support zone at 1265 (S2). On the daily chart, the 14-day RSI moved lower after finding resistance at its 50-line, while the daily MACD, already below its trigger line, turned negative, indicating negative momentum for the yellow metal.

• Support: 1280 (S1), 1265 (S2), 1258 (S3).

• Resistance: 1290 (R1), 1312 (R2), 1325 (R3) .

WTI keeps falling

WTI continued falling on Thursday, breaking below the lows of the 15th of July at 98.65. The price found support at 97.60 (S1). Although the picture remains negative, I feel that the decline was too steep and change my view to flat for today. I would like to see a dip below 97.00 (S2) before expecting the continuation of the downtrend. Such a dip could pave the way towards the zone of 95.85 (S3). Zooming on the 1-hour chart, the 14-hour RSI moved out from its oversold field and is now pointing up, while the hourly MACD has bottomed and is now ready to cross above its signal line. As a result I would expect another run of short-covering near 97.60 (S1).

• Support: 97.60 (S1), 97.00 (S2), 95.85 (S3).

• Resistance: 98.65 (R1), 100.45 (R2), 101.00 (R3).



Friday, 01 Aug, 2014 / 9:02

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