Gold broke through the $1280-1285/oz zone, which has been the strongest support since the beginning of the year. That descending triangle, which was described in the last review has broken down. The price even managed to make a small retest of the lower boundary of the triangle and, most likely, will continue to move into a phase of local consolidation. After that, in case of continuation of the downward movement, buyers are likely to begin to operate in the area of $1250-1260. However, the most realistic option this week, on the eve of Easter holidays, is a small trading range near $1275.
The local downtrend was caused by macroeconomic statistics from China. Official data showed that the country's GDP in the first quarter of 2019 increased by 6.4% in annual terms, against the forecast of 6.3%. Industrial production data also turned out to be better than the consensus forecast (growth of 8.5% instead of 5.6%), retail sales were also significantly better than expected. This data has weakened investor concerns about the slowdown in global economic growth.
In the longer term, some analysts believe, that the US Federal Reserve’s position on the interest rates and ongoing geopolitical problems may cause the precious metal price rise up to $ 1,400 in the second half of this year.