The UK Supreme Court hearing on Brexit reaches day two of one of the most important constitutional cases in British legal history. The Supreme Court is hearing an appeal from the Government to overturn a High Court ruling which would allow PM Theresa May to trigger Article 50 and therefore begin the formal exiting process next Spring.
This hearing has exposed an underlying feeling that the Brexit referendum result is being stolen from people. Financial markets are indeed already reflecting the lower likelihood of a UK exit. Indeed, the pound continues to appreciate as long as short squeezes add-up. The pound has reached a two-month high against the dollar and a three-month high against the single currency.
We believe that a non-respect of the people’s vote could likely provoke a big democratic crisis in Europe. Such a scenario would not be a first with France in 2005 and Greece in 2015 being just some examples of previously overturned referendum results. However, Brexit represents the first time that a country tries to actually exit Europe and it would simply mean that exiting is an almost impossible path. Though a ruling will not be provided until the new year, the Supreme Court, which is full of Europhiles, is likely to decide to give MPs the power to decide the fate of the UK’s future in the union.