USDCAD
With the recent weakness in Crude prices, Canada's main export item, the USDCAD is approaching short-term descending trend-line resistance, at 1.3210 now, which is closely followed by the 200-day SMA level of 1.3215 that has been restricting its upside. If the same happens this time and drags the price to south, 1.3160 and a month-old trend-line support of 1.3125 might please short-term Bears, breaking which 1.3080 and the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of September up-move, near 1.3050, are likely downside levels to appear on the chart. Should the pair declines below 1.3050, the 1.3000 psychological magnet comes into play. However, pair's break above 1.3215 can quickly fuel the quote to 1.3245 and then to the September high of 1.3280 prior to reigniting chances of its rally to 61.8% FE level of 1.3330. In case if the pair successfully trades above 1.3330, it becomes capable enough to flash 1.3400 mark.
EURCAD
Even after portraying the same pattern as USDCAD, the EURCAD seems weaker and might re-test 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of its previous-month advance, at 1.4715; though, its further downside below 1.4715 would be confined by upward slanting trend-line support of 1.4685. Given the pair declines below 1.4685, it can swiftly run-down to 1.4640 and the 1.4610 supports. Alternatively, 23.6% Fibo level of 1.4800, adjacent to short-term descending TL point, at 1.4820, can restrict the pair's immediate upside. If the pair clears 1.4820, the 1.4865-70 horizontal resistance might hinder its further advances before it could challenge the 1.4925 and the 61.8% FE level of 1.4965-70.
CADJPY
Having breached 50-day SMA level, the CADJPY now confronts three-month old downward slanting trend-line resistance of 78.65. clearing which it's rise to 100-day SMA level of 79.70 becomes imminent. During the pair's further advance beyond 79.70, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its April – September decline, at 80.50, and the 81.25, are expected north-side figures to observe. On the downside, 50-day SMA level of 77.85 and the 77.25 may limit the pair's near-term south-run, breaking which 76.70 and the 76.10 can provide noticeable halts to prices before dragging them to recent low of 75.40.
NZDCAD
Following its gradual declines from 0.9685, the NZDCAD is now resting around 0.9420-25 horizontal support-zone; however, unlike other CAD counterparts, the NZD is weaker than the Loonie, as the Canadian Dollar is known as, which indicates brighter chances for the pair's extended south-run towards 0.9380 and the 0.9340 supports. If the pair continue declining below 0.9340, it becomes weaker enough to serve August low of 0.9276 and the 0.9210 downside figures. Meanwhile, pair's bounce from the current levels need to clear 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its August – September up-move, at 0.9505, in order to make it qualified for 0.9540 and the 0.9580 resistances. Given the pair manage to surpass 0.9580, 23.6% Fibo level of 0.9625 and the 0.9650 could please its buyers.
Cheers and Safe Trading
Anil Panchal