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Having failed to clear 1.3240-60 horizontal resistance-zone, comprising 200-day SMA, the USDCAD seems now declining towards 1.2990-85 support-confluence, including the 100-day SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – May downturn. However, the pair might have little space below 1.2985, till 1.2930, after which four-month old ascending trend-line support of 1.2850 could limit its further downside. In case the pair breaks 1.2850, the 1.2755-50 and the 1.2650-45 are likely downside figures to be witnessed on the chart. Alternatively, 1.3070 and the 1.3130 might entertain immediate buyers of the pair before they again fuel it to 1.3240-60 area. Should the pair surpasses 1.3260, it becomes capable enough to aim for 1.3380 and the 1.3475-80 resistance marks.


Even after witnessing volatile moves on Wednesday, the CADJPY maintained trading within a month-old descending trend-channel. The pair now heads to the channel's upper-line of 77.70, breaking which 78.20 and the 50-day SMA level of 78.60 can become hands-reach levels for the pair. Given the pair continue trading to north beyond 78.60, the 79.40 and the 80.30 are likely consecutive resistances to witness on the chart before it could rise to 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its April – June decline, at 80.90. On the downside, 76.50 and the June lows around 76.00 can offer nearby support to the pair during its pullback while the channel support level of 75.80 could limit its additional south-run. Given the channel formation breaks and the pair continue declining below 75.80, it becomes liable to test 61.8% FE mark of 74.60.


While AUDCAD's bounce from four-month old ascending trend-line helped it to print the highest figure since early August on Wednesday, the pair failed to sustain its break above 1.0000 psychological magnet and is now witnessing a pullback towards 0.9950-45 immediate support. If the pair extend its present profit-booking below 0.9945, the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its September – December 2015 up-move, near 0.9925, and the 0.9890 might offer intermediate halts before it could re-test the mentioned upward slanting TL mark of 0.9850. In case of the pair's dip below 0.9850, the 200-day SMA level of 0.9805 and the 38.2% Fibo level of 0.9780 could come alive on the chart. Meanwhile, pair's capacity to surpass the 1.0000 mark on a closing basis still needs to clear 1.0030 and the 1.0045 before confronting the 1.0090-95 horizontal resistance, which if surpassed favors the chances of its extended north-run to December-2015 highs of 1.0170.


NZDCAD's inability to sustain the break above 61.8% FE of its April – July up-move, coupled with recent strength of the Crude prices driving CAD, presently indicates the pair's south-run towards four-month old ascending TL support of 0.9520. If the CAD strength drags the pair below 0.9520, the 0.9480 and the 50-day SMA level of 0.9420 are expected downside figures to observe on the chart, which if broken opens the door for its southwards trajectory towards 0.9365 and the 0.9270 supports. However, pair's reversal from the current levels can witness 0.9585 and the 0.9630 prior to revisiting the 61.8% FE mark of 0.9660. Should the pair closes above 0.9660, chances of its rally to 0.9730 and then to the 0.9800 round figure can't be denied.

Cheers and Safe Trading,

Anil Panchal

Friday, 23 Sep, 2016 / 5:14

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