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Technical Update: NZDJPY, CHFJPY And NZDCHF


Even after bouncing from 74.00 – 74.10 support-confluence on Thursday, the NZDJPY failed to extend the pullback and is presently targeting the same region re-test, comprising 50-day & 100-day SMA, coupled with short-term ascending trend-line. Given the pair drops below 74.00, the 73.55 might act as intermediate halt before it could test 73.00 round figure and the 72.20 support marks. Moreover, pair's continued downside below 72.20 might take a break at 71.00 during its plunge towards June low around 69.00. On the contrary, 75.00 and the 75.40 are likely nearby resistances that could confine the pair's immediate upside, breaking which 200-day SMA level of 75.60 comes into play. Should the pair surpasses 75.60, it becomes capable enough to print 76.00, 76.50 and the 77.20 north-side figures on the chart.


CHFJPY's repeated failures to surpass a nine-month old descending trend-line resistance indicate brighter chances of the pair's further downside; however, 104.30-25 area has been restricting its immediate declines since more than a week. Given the pair dips below 104.25, 103.80 and the 103.20 are likely following supports to observe prior to expecting June low, around 101.80, comeback. In case the pair weakens further below 101.80, it becomes vulnerable enough to plunge towards 61.8% FE of its March – June south-run, near 99.20. Meanwhile, 50-day SMA level of 105.30 can act as nearby resistance for the pair, clearing which it can again challenge 105.75 TL resistance, which if broken triggers its upward trajectory to 106.30 and to the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of December 2015 – June 2016 decline, at 107.00. Further, the pair's additional up-moves beyond 107.00 enable it to show 107.80 and the 108.40 resistances.


Considering the NZDCHF's pullback from 0.7060, coupled with relative strength of the NZD, the pair seems all set to extend its north-run towards 0.7180; though, 0.7130 is likely immediate resistance that it needs to surpass. Should the pair successfully clears 0.7180, the 0.7220-30 horizontal-resistance, comprising multiple highs marked in July and during the early-month advance, becomes an important area to watch for the pair traders. If the pair provides a daily closing above 0.7230, it becomes capable enough to extend the upside towards 61.8% FE of its April – July rally, at 0.7330. Alternatively, pair's pullback from current levels can witness 0.7085 and the 0.7065 as adjacent supports before it drop to the 0.7040 support confluence, including 50-day SMA & 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement. However, pair's further downside below 0.7040 might find it difficult to break the 0.7000 psychological magnet, including a five-month old ascending TL, which if broken can quickly drag the pair to 0.6950 and then to the 0.6920 support numbers.

Cheers and Safe Trading,

Anil Panchal

Monday, 19 Sep, 2016 / 5:05

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