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Technical Update: EURUSD, USDJPY, AUDUSD And NZDUSD July 12, 2016 09:00


Following its bounce from 1.1000 mark during last weekend, the EURUSD managed to clear a week-long trend-line resistance on Tuesday. However, pullback moves from 1.1125 again drags the pair prices towards 1.1070, breaking which 1.1050 & the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its Brexit-day crash, around 1.1030, adjacent to more than a fortnight old ascending trend-line support of 1.1020, might restrict its further downside. Given the pair drops below 1.1020, the 1.1000 round figure mark and the 1.0970 might act as intermediate halts during its southward trajectory to revisit recent lows of 1.0940, which if broken can further extend its decline towards 61.8% FE level of 1.0870-65. On the upside, 1.1125, 1.1150 and the 50% Fibo level of 1.1170 are likely upside resistances to entertain the short-term bulls, clearing which 1.1190 horizontal mark will be a key level to watch. If the pair successfully emerges out of the 1.1190, also surpasses the 1.1200, 1.1240 and the 1.1300 levels might comeback.


With a major victory of present Japanese PM in upper house election favoring further monetary easing by the BoJ, JPY weakened considerably again majority of its counterparts and the USDJPY, not being an exception, successfully cleared 103.40-50 resistance confluence, including a month old descending trend-line & a fortnight-long horizontal-line. Should the pair manage to sustain its break above 103.50, it can extend the recent upside towards 104.30 and the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – June downside, at 105.15. Moreover, pair's successful up-move beyond 105.15 can stretch the upward journey to 105.70 and the 106.30 resistance levels. Meanwhile, a dip below 103.40 can quickly drag the prices to 102.80 and the 102.10 – 102.00 area, clearing which 101.40 and the 100.60 can provide consecutives rest to its decline. If the pair further weakens below 100.60, the 100.00 – 99.95 is a crucial level for the traders to watch, which if broken can recall June lows around 98.85.


Having breached two-month old trend-line resistance, the AUDUSD seems all set to counter 0.7645-50 area, encompassing a short-term ascending trend-channel resistance and a horizontal line, connecting June high. Should the pair clears the 0.7650, it can easily rise up-to 0.7715-20 and the 0.7760-65 resistance-area, surpassing which enables the pair to aim for April highs of 0.7835. Alternatively, the mentioned trend-line resistance-turned-support, around 0.7590, acts as immediate support for the pair, breaking which 61.8% Fibo of its April – May slide, around 0.7570, the 0.7520, and the channel support of 0.7500, become crucial for the pair. Though, pair's additional south-run below 0.7500 can print 0.7440 and the 0.7400, including 38.2% Fibo, on the chart.


Even if the short-term ascending trend-channel resistance confined NZDUSD up-moves during last week, the pair recently cleared its previous high and is again aiming the channel resistance mark of 0.7330, near to the 61.8% FE of its May – June upside, near 0.7345. However, overbought RSI might trigger another pullback around those levels, if not, than the pair seems all set to clear the 0.7400 mark and print 0.7415-20 resistance-numbers. On the contrary, pair's dip below 0.7275 can drag the pair to 0.7230 ascending trend-line level, breaking which 0.7200 and the 0.7160 can provide buffers during its drop to 0.7140 channel support. Given the bears magnify the pair's pullback below 0.7140, chances of its further downside towards 0.7080-85 can't be denied.

Follow me on twitter to discuss latest markets events @Fx_Anil.

Wednesday, 13 Jul, 2016 / 2:17

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