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On Monday, weaker than forecast US New Home Sales helped the EURUSD to bounce from short-term descending trend-channel support, also comprising 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its March – April upside; however, the pair presently struggles to clear the 1.1300 immediate resistance, which if broken can accelerate its pullback to 1.1335 and the 1.1355 resistance levels. If the pair successfully breaks above 1.1355, the mentioned channel's resistance level of 1.1385 might hold its further upside confined, clearing which it becomes capable enough to challenge the present month highs of 1.1465. Meanwhile, 1.1250-55, 38.2% Fibo level of 1.1215, followed by the channel support around 1.1200, are likely nearby supports that the pair might witness on the reverse-side. Given the pair's break of 1.1200, it can quickly drop to 50% Fibo level, near 1.1150 while its further south-run below 1.1150 can drag it to 1.1060-55 support-zone.


Break of two-month old descending trend-line enabled GBPUSD to surpass 100-day SMA for the first time in nearly seven months, signaling further rise to 1.4580 and the 1.4670-80 adjacent resistances. If the pair manage to clear the 1.4670-80 horizontal resistance-region, including 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its October 2015 – February 2016 downside, it can accelerate the upward trajectory towards 1.4800 and the 1.4945-50 resistances. Should the pair reverses from current levels, 38.2% Fibo level of 1.4470, the 100-day SMA, at 1.4420 now, and the trend-line resistance-turned-support, around 1.4380, are consecutive levels to observe. Though, pair's sustained trading below 1.4380 can trigger its fresh south-run towards 1.4280 and the 1.4130 support levels.


Even if the USDJPY managed to break three month old descending trend-line during Friday, and rallied to early month highs, the pair failed to close beyond 50-day SMA level and is presently taking rest around 110.60 horizontal-line support. Given the pair drops below 110.60, the 109.80-75 can offer an intermediate halt to its decline towards 109.30 and 108.70. However, the pair's extended south-run below 108.70 can further weaken it to test monthly low around 107.60. On the upside, 111.35-40 may act as immediate resistance for the pair to clear prior to aiming the break of 50-day SMA level of 111.80 now. If the pair successfully clears the 111.80, chances of its run-up to 112.60-70 can't be denied.


USDCHF's bounce from four-month old descending trend-line support was aptly confined by the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its August – November 2015 upside on Friday. The pair currently indicates a pullback towards 0.9720-15 and the 0.9680 supports, clearing which 0.9600 and the 0.9525 are likely consecutive levels to observe during further downside. Though, 0.9470 and the mentioned trend-line support of 0.9450 could give rise to another U-turn of the pair prices. Alternatively, 50-day SMA level of 0.9780, quickly followed by the 50% fibo level of 0.9800, could restrict the pair's near-term upside, clearing which it needs to confront with the 200-day SMA level of 0.9835 and the 0.9855 resistances to aim for the 0.9920 level, including 38.2% Fibo. Should the pair closes above 0.9920, the 1.0000 psychological magnet becomes next resistance for the traders to watch.

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Wednesday, 27 Apr, 2016 / 3:13

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