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With a six-year low of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI dragging the US Dollar down against majority of its counterparts, the EURUSD rallied beyond 100-day SMA; however, the pair failed to defeat 1.1250-60 resistance-zone and is witnessing pullback moves on Wednesday. From the present levels, the pair indicates the 100-day SMA revisit, at 1.1210 now, breaking which 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its December 2015 – May 2016 upside, near 1.1200 round figure, might act as intermediate halt before it could drop to 200-day SMA point of 1.1125. Given the pair continue declining below 1.1125, the 1.1070, comprising 50% Fibo level, and nine-month old ascending TL support of 1.1050 become crucial to observe. On the upside, a break of 1.1260 enables the pair to print 1.1300 mark but the 1.1320 downward slanting trend-line resistance can restrict its following advances. In case the pair manage to surpass 1.1320, chances of its rise to 23.6% Fibo level of 1.1360 and then to the 1.1415-20 region can't be denied.


Following the recent run of upbeat UK economics, the Manufacturing Production detail from the Britain, published on Wednesday, proved to be a drag for the GBP traders as the five month low print pulled the GBPUSD back from a short-term ascending trend-channel resistance. Though, market players eye for UK Inflation report hearings, scheduled for release during the later-day, which if sound hawkish, can again propel the pair to challenge the 1.3455-60 channel upper-line. However, its further upside beyond 1.3460 have to confront with 1.3480-90 horizontal resistance to justify its strength, which if broken can propel the pair to 1.3540 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its June – July plunge, at 1.3645. Meanwhile, 1.3280-70 can continue offering immediate support to the pair, breaking which 1.3200 and the 1.3180 can act as buffer rests before it could test the 1.3150-45 important support confluence, including 50-day SMA and lower-line of the mentioned channel. Should the pair closes below 1.3145, its fresh downside towards 1.3050 and then to 1.2980 can be expected.


Successful reversal from 100-day SMA, coupled with RBA's inaction, helped the AUDUSD to revisit more than a week's high on Tuesday but absence of strong GDP figure stopped the pair from extending its upside on the following trading-day. At present, the 0.7690 – 0.7700 become critical important resistance for the pair, breaking which it can challenge the five-month old descending TL mark of 0.7730. Given the pair surpasses 0.7730, it becomes capable enough to revisit April highs around 0.7835 before targeting the 0.7875-80 upside obstacle. Alternatively, 0.7630, followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of January – April north-run, at 0.7595, and the 0.7580 are likely nearby supports that the pair can test during its correction. In case the pair fail to stop its decline below 0.7580, the 0.7545 and the 100-day SMA level of 0.7490 again come into play.


Unlike other majors, the NZDUSD seems having little upside as the pair is near to five month old ascending trend-line resistance of 0.7500, which coupled with overbought RSI indicates brighter chances of it pullback towards 0.7420 support mark. Should the pair drops below 0.7420, the 0.7380, 0.7320 and the 0.7260 are likely consecutive downside numbers to witness on screen, which if broken can drag the pair to 0.7200 – 0.7195 important support-zone, including 50-day SMA and an upward slanting TL. In case the pair manage to surpass 0.7500 mark, its extended north-run to 61.8% FE of its January – July upside, near 0.7555, followed by the 0.7600 round figure can be expected. Moreover, pair's sustained trading beyond 0.7600 enables it to challenge the 0.7740-45 region, encompassing April 2015 highs.

Cheers and Safe Trading,

Anil Panchal

Monday, 12 Sep, 2016 / 1:43

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