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Technical Update: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD And NZDUSD

EURUSD

With the recent USD strength, the EURUSD reversed from 61.8% FE of its March – April up-move and is presently indicating a quick test to two month old upward slanting trend-line, at 1.1340 now; however, oversold RSI levels on short-term time-frame favors the pair's bounce from the trend-line support towards 1.1430 immediate resistance. Should the pair breaks above 1.1430, the 1.1470 and the 1.1510 are likely consecutive resistances that it could witness before aiming to revisit the recent highs around 1.1620, which if broken enables the pair to challenge the August 2015 highs around 1.1715. Alternatively, break of 1.1340 trend-line support can drag the pair prices towards 1.1300 and the 1.1215 support levels. Given the pair's extended downturn below 1.1215, it could drop to 1.1140 and the 1.1070 downside numbers.

GBPUSD

Following the GBPUSD's failure to surpass 1.4670-80 resistance-confluence, comprising nine-month old descending trend-line and a horizontal-line, the pair declined to more than two week's low; however, the 100-day SMA level, at 1.4370 now, triggered its bounce. At present, the pair prices may extend its pullback towards 1.4500 nearby resistance, which if broken can propel it to 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of August 2015 – February 2016 downside, near 1.4600 round figure mark. However, pair's further upside beyond 1.4600 might find it hard to break the mentioned downward slanting trend-line resistance, at 1.4655, quickly followed by 1.4670-80 horizontal-area. Given the pair's ability to close above 1.4680, it becomes capable enough to target 1.4800 resistance. On the downside, a daily closing below 1.4370 100-day SMA level can quickly fetch the pair towards 1.4300 and the 1.4280 support numbers while its extended slide below 1.4280 needs to confront with the ascending trend-line support level of 1.4150. Should the pair drops below 1.4150, it becomes vulnerable to plunge towards 1.4000 psychological magnet with 1.4050 being an intermediate rest-point.

AUDUSD

Even if the AUDUSD dropped below 0.7340-30 support-zone, including 100-day SMA, 50% Fibonacci Retracement of January – May rise and the horizontal-line, upbeat inflation numbers from China, Australia's largest consumer, together with oversold RSI, pulled the pair prices back. Should the pair manage to clear the 0.7400 immediate resistance on a closing basis, the 38.2% Fibo, near 0.7450 can become quick following upside number for it to surpass before challenging the 0.7495 – 0.7500 resistance-zone. Further, pair's sustained up-move beyond 0.7500 can rejuvenate its upside momentum towards 23.6% Fibo, at 0.7600, and then to 0.7670 mark. Meanwhile, 0.7280, 200-day SMA level of 0.7260 and the 61.8% Fibo mark of 0.7210, are likely nearby supports that the pair traders should watch for. If the pair drops below 0.7210, also clears the 0.7200 round figure, the February month low around 0.7100, gains more popularity as a support.

NZDUSD

Having decisively breached the four-month old ascending trend-channel, the NZDUSD presently rests at 100-day SMA level of 0.6725-30 ahead of bi-annual Financial Stability Report from the New-Zealand central bank, RBNZ. While on-going liquidation in commodity prices, coupled with not so hawkish numbers from China indicates a gloomy outlook from the central banker, an actual release, if being dovish, can drag the pair to 0.6650 and the 0.6560 supports. Should the pair continue on its south-run below 0.6560, the 0.6500 round figure mark might offer an intermediate rest to the pair's plunge towards 2016 lows near 0.6430. Should the RBNZ refrains from revealing its economic weakness, the pair might bounce back to 0.6800 channel support level, which if cleared negated the recent breakdown and can further fetch the prices up to 0.6850 and the 0.6890 resistances. Further, the pair's successful trading above 0.6900 mark could propel it to conquer the 0.6985-90 and the 0.7050-55 resistance levels.

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Tuesday, 10 May, 2016 / 11:56

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Source : http://www.mtrading.com/analytics/technical-analysis/technical-update-eurusd-gbpusd-audusd-and-nzdusd-7

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