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Even if the Friday's disappointment from US GDP fuelled EURUSD to clear 1.1185-90 horizontal resistance, over-bought RSI levels on H4 indicates fair chances for the pair's pullback towards 1.1150 immediate support, which if broken can drag the prices to 1.1100 & 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – June slide, around 1.1075. Given the pair drops below 1.1075, the 1.1030, 1.0980 and the 1.0950 are likely consecutive downside numbers to be seen on the chart prior to witnessing a dip below June lows of 1.0910. Alternatively, 1.1240 and the 50% Fibo level of 1.1265, followed by three-month old descending trend-line, around 1.1285, can continue hindering the pair's nearby upside moves. If the pair manages to clear 1.1285, the 1.1330 might act as intermediate halt during its upward trajectory to 1.1415-20 resistance-area.


RBA's much expected rate-cut failed to pull the AUDUSD prices below 0.7485 mark, comprising 100-day SMA and a short-term ascending TL. The pair now seems heading to challenge the 0.7615 and the 0.7650 resistances before confronting with 0.7680-90 horizontal-line resistance. On a successful break beyond 0.7690, the pair only needs to surpass 0.7765 prior to breaking the April highs of 0.7835. However, pair's decline below 0.7485 can have 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – April upside, near 0.7450, and the 0.7400 supports to test. Should the pair continue declining below 0.7400, 50% Fibo and 200-day SMA confluence, at 0.7325-30, adjacent to seven-month old upward slanting trend-line, at 0.7310, become tough support numbers to observe, which if cleared can drag the pair to 0.7260 & 0.7145-50 downside levels.


Following a week-long descending trend-line, the USDCAD dropped towards nearby upward slanting TL support of 1.3045, breaking which can trigger its south-run towards 1.3015 and the 1.2975 levels before the 1.2950 mark, including 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its June – July rally and a broader ascending trend-line, restricts its further decline. Given the pair fails to respect 1.2950, chances of its plunge towards 1.2860-55 can't be denied. On upside, 23.6% Fibo level of 1.3110 and the trend-line mark of 1.3140 offer strong short-term resistances to the pair, breaking which it could rally to 1.3200 and can challenge the July highs of 1.3250. If the pair sustains its break beyond 1.3250, it needs to surpass 200-day SMA level of 1.3310 on a daily chart in order to aim for 1.3400 round figure resistance.


Following its dip below 200-day SMA, the USDCHF kept extending its downside since late-last week. The pair now struggles around 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of November 2015 – May 2016 south-run, at 0.9650, and indicates fair chances of its drop to three month old upward slanting trend-line of 0.9580. Though, oversold RSI levels might trigger the pair's bounce from 0.9580, failing to which can fetch the quotes to 0.9525 and the May lows of 0.9445. Meanwhile, pair's close above 0.9660 can trigger its bounce to 0.9700 mark and the 100-day SMA level of 0.9735, surpassing which 38.2% Fibo level of 0.9780, 0.9840 and the 0.9860, including 200-day SMA level, are likely following resistances that it could aim for. If the pair continue running above 0.9860, the 0.9900 mark can offer a small hurdle for the pair prior to its rise towards 0.9950-60 horizontal resistance, which if surpassed can fuel it to 1.0030-35 region.

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Wednesday, 03 Aug, 2016 / 2:48

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