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Technical Plays of USDCHF, CHFJPY And AUDCHF


USDCHF's reversal from 0.9900 dragged the pair below three-week old ascending trend-line, signaling its further south-run to 50% Fibonacci Retracement of late-May – June decline, around 0.9735. Given the pair further drops below 0.9735, 0.9690-85 horizontal support-zone, comprising 38.2% Fibo, might confine its additional downside, failing to which can print 0.9615-10 on the chart. Meanwhile, 0.9820 can be considered as an immediate resistance for the pair to clear prior to targeting the 0.9860 and the 0.9900 round figure. Should it manage to surpass 0.9900, the 0.9920 may pose as an intermediate barrier before it could rally to 0.9960 and then to the 1.0000 psychological magnet.


Ever since the Japanese PM won the upper-house election, the CHFJPY diverged from its previous downside and rallied to three week highs; however, a downward slanting trend-line stretched since March, coupled with the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – June upside, at 108.45-50, immediately followed by the 50-day SMA level of 108.85, becomes crucial at present. Given the pair clears the 108.85 on a closing basis, 109.50 and the 50% Fibo level of 110.50 can further please the pair bulls before expecting the 111.50-60 resistance-zone. Alternatively, a dip below 107.10 can trigger the pair's quick pullback to 106.50 and then to the 23.6% Fibo level of 105.90. Should the pair extend its downward trajectory below 105.90, chances of its fresh downside to 104.00 and the 102.90-85 can't be denied.


With the on-going rush for high interest-bearing currencies, the AUDCHF managed to print highest mark since late-April; though, overbought RSI pulled the pair back a bit to 0.7460. At present, the pair is struggling between 0.7550 and the 0.7460 with overbought RSI signaling more of the downside to 0.7390 and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its August 2015 – April 2016, at 0.7345, on the break of 0.7460. Should the pair continue declining below 0.7345, the 0.7290 and the 0.7245 might act as pass-by supports prior to its visit to the 200-day SMA and 38.2% Fibo region of 0.7200 – 0.7190, which becomes a strong support. On the upside, a clear break above 0.7550, needs to confront with April highs of 0.7600 and an ascending trend-line resistance-mark of 0.7625, which if broken enables the pair to test the 61.8% FE level of 0.7690. Given the pair surpasses the 0.7690, also breaks 0.7700, it can show 0.7820 resistance-mark.

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Monday, 18 Jul, 2016 / 3:18

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