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Short-term symmetrical triangle on USDJPY becomes helpful for sellers as the quote is near to its 100.00 support-line, with the USD weakness favoring more of its downside towards 99.80 and 99.65 numbers. Given the pair continue trading down below 99.65, recent lows around 99.50 might act as intermediate halt before it could test 61.8% FE level of 99.00 and the Brexit-day lows of 98.85. Moreover, pair's further weakness below 98.85 can trigger its plunge towards 100% FE level of 97.80. On the contrary, 100.50 is an immediate resistance for the pair before it could challenge a week-old descending trend-line mark of 100.65, which if broken Bulls to print 101.00 and the 101.25-30 on the chart. Should the pair successfully trades above 101.30, chances of its run to 101.80 and the 102.20-30 become brighter.


Having failed to clear the 114.00, the EURJPY signals the 112.25-30 horizontal support re-test, breaking which 111.85 and the 111.00 might entertain intermediate bears before dragging the prices to June lows around 109.35. If at all the pair continues declining below 109.30, 61.8% FE level of its April – June slide, around 106.80, can come into play. Meanwhile, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of the said slump, around 113.75, quickly followed by 114.00 round figure, might restrict the pair's near-term upside attempts, which if broken fuels the pair to short-term descending trend-line and 50-day SMA resistance confluence area of 114.65-70. In case the pair manage to surpass 114.70 on a daily closing basis, it can rise to 38.2% Fibo level of 116.50 and then to 117.30 ahead of challenging the 118.70-80 area, which comprises 100-day SMA, 50% Fibo and a broader downward slanting trend-line.


With the help of immediate ascending trend-channel, the GBPJPY managed to clear a month old downward slanting TL, indicating further run-up to 134.00 round figure, including channel resistance; however, the same could restrict its following advances. If the pair maintains its strength beyond 134.00, the 135.50 and the 136.30 might pose buffer rests during its upward trajectory to 138.00. Alternatively, 131.80 and the channel support of 131.20, adjacent to resistance-turned-support line of 130.50, are likely downside numbers to watch. Given the pair breaks 130.50, 129.50 and the July lows of 128.70 become crucial, which if not respected can trigger fresh downside towards 61.8% FE of its June – July drop, near 123.70 support mark.


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NZDJPY has been struggling between 72.20 – 73.90 rectangle formation since the start of August and the recent upward slanting TL indicates the pair's revisit to range resistance. If the pair manage to clear the 73.90, also surpassing the 74.00 round figure, 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its Brexit-day plunge, at 74.35, and the two-month old descending trend-line mark of 74.80 are likely following upside numbers to watch. In case of the pair's breakout of 74.80, the 75.30-35 and the 76.00 can comeback. Should the pair reverse from current levels, the immediate TL support of 72.95 and the 72.50 can precede the 72.20 rectangle support. Given the pair drops below 72.20, the 71.85 and the 71.10 can hold following slides before it could plunge to re-test Brexit-day lows of 69.00.

Cheers and Safe Trading,

Anil Panchal

Thursday, 25 Aug, 2016 / 5:42

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