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Although recent advances in Crude prices provided additional weakness to the USDCAD, which dropped to nine month lows on Thursday, the 1.2555-50, horizontal area, quickly followed by the short-term trend-channel support, at 1.2500 now, coupled with oversold RSI, might trigger the pair's bounce towards 1.2650 immediate resistance. Should it clear the 1.2650, the 1.2750, 1.2800 and the 1.2850 are likely consecutive upside numbers that the pair can rise towards. Moreover, pair's extended recovery beyond 1.2850 enables it to challenge the 1.2970-80 important resistance-zone, comprising 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its May 2015 – January 2016 upside and upper-line of the mentioned channel, which if broken can fuel its up-move towards 50-day SMA level of 1.3120. On the contrary, a break below 1.2500 could further weaken the pair towards 1.2400 and the 1.2350-45 supports, breaking which 1.2200 and the 1.2165-60 becomes follow-on levels that the pair traders should watch.


Having breached a year-long upward slanting trend-line, the EURCAD slid to four-months low; however, 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its April 2015 – January 2016 up-move, near 1.4200 – 1.4195, has been holding the pair's further downside captive. If the pair drops below 1.4195, the 1.4125 is likely an intermediate support for it to test before resting on 1.4020 – 1.4000 horizontal support-region while a clear break below 1.4000 psychological magnet makes the pair vulnerable enough to plunge towards 1.3800 mark. Alternatively, 1.4330 and the 1.4375 are expected nearby upside numbers that could restrict the pair's immediate rise, which if broken can propel the pair to 1.4400 and the 50% Fibo level of 1.4560. Given the pair's sustained trading above 1.4560, the 1.4725-30 confluence, including three month old descending trend-line and the recently broke support-turned-resistance-line, can limit the pair's north-run.


Having failed to clear the 1.8500 resistance confluence, comprising resistance-line of two-month old descending trend-channel and a horizontal resistance stretched since mid-March, the GBPCAD presently indicated its fresh downside to 1.8235-30 immediate support, breaking which 1.8185 and the 1.8150 are likely buffer levels that the pair can pass through prior to targeting the 1.8100 horizontal support re-test. If the pair continues dipping down below 1.8100, the 1.8000 psychological magnet and the channel support of 1.7930 may become reality to watch. Meanwhile, 1.8350, 1.8430 and the trend-line resistance of 1.8465 could entertain the pair's pullback before it could revisit the 1.8500 mark. Should it manage to break above 1.8500, chances of its rise to 1.8615 and the 1.8700 can't be denied.


On Thursday, BoJ's inaction, against market consensus of further easing announcement, dragged the CADJPY from its 200-day SMA level, indicating a quick test to resistance-turned-support line of 85.00. However, pair's further drop below 85.00 can fetch it to 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its June 2015 – January 2016 decline, near 84.10, and then towards three month old ascending trend-line support of 82.50. If at all the pair keeps maintaining its downside below 82.50, it could magnify the southward trajectory to 81.00 and to 80.00 psychological magnet. Should the pair closes around 85.80, it can again restore its up-move towards 86.50 and to the 87.30-40 horizontal resistance, including 38.2% Fibo. Further, its extended rise beyond 87.40 helps it to confront with 200-day SMA level of 88.60, clearing which the pair becomes a strong contestant to aim for 90.00 mark, including 50% Fibo level.

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Friday, 29 Apr, 2016 / 3:38

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