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Friday's US Jobs report magnified the EURUSD weakness, which earlier pulled the pair back from 100-day SMA. The pair presently struggles around 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its December 2015 – May 2016 upside, at 1.1065, clearing which 1.1030 might act as a small support for the pair to clear before it could visit the eight-month old ascending trend-line support of 1.1000. Given the pair drops below 1.1000 on a closing basis, the 61.8% Fibo level of 1.0940 and the Brexit-day lows of 1.0910 are likely following numbers that traders should observe, which if broken can fetch the quote towards 1.0820 – 1.0800 important support-zone. Meanwhile, profit-booking moves can fuel the pair to 1.1120 and the 1.1140 immediate resistances, prior to challenging the 38.2% Fibo level of 1.1200. However, pair's additional upside beyond 1.1200 needs to confront with descending TL resistance of 1.1210 and the 100-day SMA level of 1.1240, surpassing which chances of its rally towards 1.1300 and then to 1.1350 become brighter.


With BoE's monetary easing presently dragging down all the GBP pairs, the GBPUSD also dip below its 1.3050-45 horizontal support, indicating fresh downside towards 61.8% FE of its Brexit-day decline, around 1.2860; though, 1.2970 can act as adjacent support. Should the pair keep declining below 1.2860, the July lows around 1.2800 round figure might offer a trigger point, clearing which the pair can plunge towards 1.2500 and the 100% FE level of 1.2180. On the upside, the support-turned-resistance area of 1.3050-45 can continue restricting the pair's near-term advances, breaking which 1.3100, 1.3160 and the 1.3275 are likely consecutive levels that can please counter-trend traders before the descending trend-line resistance of 1.3340 limits the pair's north-run. If the pair successfully breaks 1.3340, it becomes capable enough to aim for 1.3485 and the 1.3530 resistances.


USDJPY's bounce from 100.70-60 horizontal support seems losing momentum and the pair is likely to re-test 101.50 immediate support before visiting the 100.70-60 area. Given the JPY strength drags the pair down below 100.60 on a daily closing basis, the 99.90 and the Brexit-day lows of 98.85 can act as intermediate resistance before the pair could plunge to 61.8% FE of its February – June slide, at 95.50. Alternatively, 103.40-50 becomes nearby resistance for the pair traders to watch before the 104.30-40 zone, including 23.6% Fibo and 50-day SMA comes on the chart. Should the on-going USD strength fuels the pair beyond 104.40, the six-month old descending trend-line resistance of 105.40 becomes an important resistance level, which if broken opens the door for the pair to mark 107.50-55 numbers, including 38.2% Fibo level.


Even if the short-term ascending trend-channel keep favoring USDCAD upside, pair's inability to surpass 1.3200 immediate resistance seems giving rise to profit-booking moves till 1.3080 nearby support. Should the profit-booking stretches below 1.3080, the pair can rest around 1.2980-85 important support-area, comprising 50-day SMA, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – May dip and channel support. Given the pair bears gain control over the pair and fetches it below 1.2980 on a closing basis, it can drop to 1.2830 and the 1.2750 supports. On the contrary, pair's capacity to surpass 1.3200 mark can propel it to 1.3250 but the 1.3300 – 1.3310 area, including 200-day SMA and the channel resistance, becomes a tough nut for the prices to crack. If the pair surpasses 1.3310, it becomes capable to print 1.3400 and the 1.3470 upside numbers on the chart.

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Wednesday, 10 Aug, 2016 / 3:18

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