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Even as the Fed's inability to provide rate-hike signals, coupled with downbeat economics, propelled the EURUSD to reverse its 2016 losses, resistance-line of a broad upward slanting trend-channel, presently at 1.1640, coupled with overbought RSI levels, might give rise to its pullback towards 1.1500 – 1.1490 immediate support-zone, comprising 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its December 2014 – March 2015 downside. Given the pair's dip below 1.1490, the 1.1450 and the 1.1340 are likely following supports that the pair traders should watch, which if broken can fetch the prices to short-term ascending trend-line support of 1.1285. On the upside, a clear beak above 1.1640 can accelerate the pair's northward trajectory towards August 2015 highs of 1.1715 and then to the 61.8% Fibo level of 1.1770. If the pair continue on its up-move beyond 1.1770, the 1.1880 might restrict its further up-move, breaking which it could rise towards 1.2000 psychological magnet.


GBPUSD's failed attempt to clear the 1.4660-80 resistance confluence, including the horizontal line and a descending trend-line stretched from August 2015, seems dragging the pair back to 1.4600 and the 1.4580 nearby supports. Should the pair drops below 1.4580, it could test the 1.4520 and the 1.4480-75 downside numbers before revisiting the 100-day SMA level around 1.4400 mark. Alternatively, a daily close above 1.4700 round figure mark can confirm the pair's breakout and fuel it towards 1.4785, 50% Fibo level of 1.4820 and then to the 200-day SMA level of 1.4875. Moreover, pair's successful up-move beyond 1.4875 enables it to aim for 1.4950 and the 1.5000 resistance levels.


Following the RBA's 25 bps rate-cut, the first in almost a year, the AUDUSD plunged; however, 0.7550-55 support-confluence, comprising lower-line of a four-month old ascending trend-channel, 50-day SMA and an immediate support-line, seems holding the pair's further decline captive. If only the pair closes below 0.7550, it can extend the downside to 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its May 2015 – January 2016 slid, near 0.7495. Moreover, pair's sustained south-run below 0.7495 can make its vulnerable enough to test the 0.7335-25 support-zone, including 100-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibo level; though, 0.7450-45 & 0.7385 can provide small barriers during its downturn. Meanwhile, a daily close above 0.7555 can trigger the pair's short-covering rise to 0.7630 and 0.7690 nearby resistances, breaking which 0.7770 becomes an important resistance to observe. Given the pair stretches the corrective recovery beyond 0.7770, it can challenge the 0.7835-55 resistance-area, which if broken can fuel its northward trajectory towards 0.8000 mark.


On Thursday, the Bank of Japan disappointed global financial markets by not indicating further monetary easing and dragged the USDJPY from 50-day SMA. The same downturn, when combined with on-going raft of safe-haven demand, presently results into the pair's trading near the short-term descending trend-channel support, at 105.80 now, quickly followed by 61.8% FE of its February – April decline, near 105.30. However, oversold levels of RSI indicates fair chances for the pair to witness a pullback towards 106.80 nearby resistance, breaking which April month low near 107.70 and the 108.80 are likely consecutive upside levels that it could witness. Given the pair's successful break above 108.80, it becomes capable enough to rise towards 109.85.90, surpassing which can propel the pair to 111.00 mark. On the flipside, pairs sustained south-run below 105.30 can magnify the pair's south-run towards 104.15-20 and then to 103.00 supports. Should the pair continue declining below 103.00, the 102.30 might hold the door for its plunge towards 100% FE level around 101.30.

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Wednesday, 04 May, 2016 / 12:54

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