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Following its failure to surpass a downward slanting trend-line stretched since May, the EURUSD seems all set to visit 1.1180-75 support-zone, comprising a short-term ascending TL and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its May – June plunge. In case better US prints drag the pair below 1.1175, the 1.1120 and the 1.1070 are likely following downside numbers to witness on the chart prior to expecting 1.0950 and the June lows around 1.0900. Alternatively, 1.1270 can act as immediate resistance to observe before the mentioned TL resistance of 1.1310 again comes into play. If the pair successfully clears 1.1310, it can quickly rise to 1.1365 while its further advances might be capped by 1.1425-30 zone, which if broken could flash 1.1500 mark for the quote.


With the break of short-term ascending trend-channel, coupled with recent weakness in UK economics, the GBPUSD is more likely to visit 1.3050-40 horizontal support-area, with 1.3125-20 being adjacent rest. Given the pair weakens below 1.3040, the 1.2930 and the 1.2850 can entertain short-term sellers ahead of making the pair test a sub-1.2800 region. Meanwhile, pair's reversal beyond channel support-turned-immediate-resistance of 1.3260 can propel the pair to 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its June plunge, around 1.3320, breaking which the 1.3380 and the 1.3450 can act as buffer barriers during its race towards 1.3480-90 horizontal resistance. In case of the pair's sustained trading above 1.3490, also clearing 1.3500 round figure, chances of its rally to 1.3565 and the 38.2% Fibo level of 1.3645 can't be denied.

AUDUSDAlike EURUSD, the AUDUSD also reversed from important near-term resistance-line during late-last-week; however, the pair's additional downside seems confined by 0.7400 – 0.7395 support-zone, comprising 200-day SMA and an upward slanting trend-line stretched since January. If the Australian job report, scheduled for publish on Thursday, prints too weak numbers and drag the pair below 0.7395, the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – April rally, around 0.7330, might act as an intermediate halt before it plunges to 0.7250 support mark. On the upside, 0.7490 – 0.7500 can continue restricting the pair's near-term advances, breaking which 0.7550 and the 23.6% Fibo level of 0.7600 are likely following resistances to spot. During the pair's further rise beyond 0.7600, the 0.7650 and the 0.7695 can offer additional barriers before the pair again challenge the recent trend-line resistance of 0.7735.


Even if the NZDUSD failed to clear short-term ascending trend-line resistance, at 0.7510 now, the pair is less likely to dip below 0.7215-10 support-confluence, including 50-day SMA, 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of January – September up-move and an upward slanting trend-line connecting May – July lows. If the pair declines below 0.7210, also clears 0.7200 round figure, it can quickly test 100-day SMA level of 0.7080 ahead of targeting 38.2% Fibo level of 0.7045 and the 0.6960-50 support-zone. Given the pair bounces-off from the present levels, the 0.7315 and the 0.7380 can act as nearby resistance to watch, clearing which 0.7420 and 0.7485 could again come alive. However, pair's further advances beyond 0.7485 might be confined by ascending trend-line of 0.7515, which if broken can give rise to the pair's rally to 61.8% FE level of 0.7555.

Cheers and Safe Trading,

Anil Panchal

Thursday, 15 Sep, 2016 / 1:37

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