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Technical Outlook: Gold, Silver And WTI Crude Oil


Break of 100-day SMA triggered Gold's plunge towards breaking three-month old descending trend-channel support and testing the Brexit-day lows. However, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its December 2015 – July 2016 upside, near $1249-50, helped soothing some of the scars and favored its present bounce to 1256-57 area where 200-day SMA mark of $1259.50 limits the yellow metal's immediate upside around US NFP. Given the US Job details print upbeat figures, another round of the bullion's south-run towards $1223 and then to the 50% Fibo level of $1210 can't be denied. If the precious metal drops below $1210, the $1200 psychological mark might act as intermediate halt during its decline to $1180-78 support-zone. On the contrary, a break of $1260, backed by disappointing US stats, can activate the Gold's short-covering towards $1275-78 and the 23.6% Fibo level of $1297. If the metal manage to surpass $1297, also clearing $1300 figure, it can again rise to challenge 100-day SMA level of $1311 before confronting the $1325 resistance.


Unlike Gold, the Silver prices have bounced-off from 200-day SMA and are indicating more strength on weaker US data-point to mark $17.70 prior to aiming the support-turned-resistance zone of $17.85-95. In case of its closing break above $18.00, it becomes capable enough to target $18.45 and meet 100-day SMA level of $18.75, which if broken might help the white-metal to test 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its December 2015 – July 2016 advances, at $19.35. Meanwhile, the bullion's dip below 200-day SMA level of $17.10 can quickly fetch it to $16.80 before flashing 61.8% Fibo level of $16.50. Moreover, the precious-metal's extended south-run below $16.50 opens the door for its slide to $15.85-80 support-area.


Having breached $46.25-30 important region, comprising 100-day SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – June rally, WTI Crude prices are now struggling around $50.45-60 horizontal resistance, which together with overbought RSI, indicates brighter chances of its pullback to $49.40 and the $48.60 nearby supports. Given the energy quote declines below $48.60, the $47.50 and the $47.00 are likely small hurdles that it needs to clear before revisiting the $46.25-30 support-zone. Alternatively, Crude's break above $50.60 might avail a halt at June high of $52.10 ahead of meeting the 61.8% FE level of $54.00. In case if the energy prices rally beyond $54.00, chances of its northward trajectory towards $56.50 can't be denied.

Cheers and Safe Trading

Anil Panchal


Wednesday, 12 Oct, 2016 / 3:24

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