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Technical Outlook: Gold, Silver And Crude Oil


While recent strength of the US Dollar, coupled with less demand of India, world's second largest Gold consumer, dragged Gold prices towards testing more than two-month low, the yellow metal failed to clear $1300 – $1305 horizontal support-zone and trades around $1311 ahead of the crucial US NFP data. Given the US Job figure pleases greenback traders, the gold prices can re-test the mentioned support-region; however, 100-day SMA and 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of the bullion's December 2015 – July 2016 rally, around $1297-96, followed by nine-month old ascending trend-line support of $1290, might restrict its further downside below $1300 break. In case of an extremely upbeat labor market report fetching the precious metal prices below $1290, chances of its plunge to $1265-63 can't be denied. Alternatively, a downbeat NFP figure and higher than forecast print of Unemployment rate could trigger the bullion's quick rise to $1317 and $1330 nearby resistance, which if broken enables it to confront with short-term descending TL of $1343. Given the yellow metal manage to surpass $1343 on a daily closing basis, it becomes capable enough to flash $1358, $1365 and the July highs of $1375 on the chart.


Ever since the Silver prices dipped below $19.20-15 horizontal support, it kept trading between $18.40 - $19.00 range; however, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its December 2015 – July 2016 up-move, also comprising 100-day SMA, at $18.25-20, offers strong support to the white metal. Given the USD rally, during post-NFP trading, drags Silver below $18.20, the $17.90 and the $17.60 are likely downside numbers that need to be observed before eyeing the $17.00 round figure support. Meanwhile, $19.20-15 resistance-confluence can keep limiting the white metal's immediate upside, breaking which it can rally to $19.50 and the $19.65 north-side figures. If prices continue its north-side momentum beyond $19.65, the $20.00 and the $20.40 quotes can comeback.


With a recent run-up in US Crude stockpiles and speculations concerning the future failure of global oil producers to agree over production freeze talks, the Oil prices continue declining and are presently struggling around 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – June upside, at $42.70. Given the energy instrument drops below $42.70 on a closing basis, it can test 200-day SMA level of $41.20 and the eight-month old ascending TL mark of $40.70. Should it breaks the $40.70 TL, also dips below $40.00 psychological level, it becomes vulnerable enough to plunge towards $38.70-50 support-region. On the upside, $44.10 and the $45.00 are likely immediate resistances that the Crude needs to surpass in order to aim for $45.80 and the 23.6% Fibo level of $46.30. If it breaks $46.30, the Crude price can extend the north-run towards $46.80, $48.00 and the $48.70 resistances.

Cheers and Safe Trading,

Anil Panchal

Monday, 05 Sep, 2016 / 9:33

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