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While strength of US Dollar dragged EURUSD to the 2016 lows, a broader descending trend-channel support triggered the pair's pullback during present week. However, the quote needs to surpass 1.0820-45 horizontal-region on a closing basis in order to restore investor confidence, else 1.0730 and the channel support of 1.0700 are likely immediate during the pair's reversal. Given the pair drops below 1.0700, the 1.0640-35 may offer an intermediate halt before it could plunge to December 2015 low of 1.0520 and then to the March 2015 low of 1.0460. In case if the pair manages to surpass 1.0845, the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its December 2015 – May 2016 up-move, at 1.0940 and the 1.1000 are expected consecutive resistances to appear on the chart. Additionally, pair's capacity sustain its north-run beyond 1.1000 enables it to aim for 50% Fibo level of 1.1070 and then to the 1.1140 mark prior to aiming the 200-day SMA level of 1.1175.


Alike EURUSD, the USDJPY also reflected the greenback strength by closing above 200-day SMA for the first-time in the present year, indicating its further advances till 109.00 – 109.10 horizontal resistance. However, overbought RSI may give rise to the pair's pullback near that level, failing to which 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – June downturn, at 110.20, and the 111.50 become follow-on resistances to expect. On the downside, pair's daily close below 38.2% Fibo level of 107.55 can quickly drag the quote to 200-day SMA level of 106.50, breaking which 105.45 may entertain short-term traders. If the pair remains weaker below 105.45, the 23.6% Fibo level of 104.20 and the 102.75 are likely support levels to observe.


Failure to surpass the 1.2660-70 resistance-confluence, comprising 50-day SMA & 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its June – October declines, the GBPUSD seems now dipping towards 1.2340-45 horizontal support. Should the pair drops below 1.2340, the 1.2250 and the 23.6% Fibo level of 1.2105 may limit the quote's additional downside, failing to which opens the door for its fresh south-run towards 1.1800 support levels. Alternatively, 1.2555 is likely immediate resistances for the pair traders to observe, clearing which 50-day SMA level of 1.2635 and the 38.2% Fibo level of 1.2665 might please the buyers. Moreover, pair's successful trading beyond 1.2665 enables the quote to target 1.2840-50 horizontal resistance, which if broken give rise to expectations of witnessing 1.3000 psychological magnet on the chart.


Even if the NZDUSD bounced-off from ten-month old ascending trend-line on Monday, the pair failed to sustain the pullback and is again testing the same 0.7100 support. If the pair closes below 0.7100, the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level of its January – September up-move, at 0.7050, and the 200-day SMA level of 0.7020 may soon flash on the chart. Given the pair keep maintaining downside below 0.7020, the 0.6955-50 and the 0.6890 are expected follow-on supports to expect. Meanwhile, 0.7140 and the 0.7200 are likely nearby resistance for the pair to break in order to push traders towards aiming 0.7275 and the 0.7300 upside levels. In case of the quote's sustained north-run above 0.7300, the 0.7340 and the 0.7395 – 0.7400 could please the pair Bulls.

Cheers and Safe Trading,

Anil Panchal

Thursday, 17 Nov, 2016 / 1:51

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