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Technical Outlook: EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD And NZDUSD

EURUSD



EURUSD's break and pullback following the Brexit result indicates a probable BPC (Break-Pullback-Continuation) pattern if the pair clears immediate 1.1035 trend-line support, paving way for its quick decline to 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its August – December 2015 downside, around 1.0975-80. Given the pair continue extending its south-run following 1.0975 break, it can revisit 1.0900 and the 1.0830 supports ahead of challenging 1.0780-75 rest-area, which if broken magnifies the pair's downward trajectory to 1.0700 and the 1.0630 downside numbers. Meanwhile, 50% Fibo level of 1.1115 and the 1.1145 trend-line mark can continue restricting the pair's nearby upside, surpassing which 1.1185 might act as intermediate halt during its run-up to 100-day SMA and support-turned-resistance-line of 1.1230. Should the pair sustain its breakout of 1.1230, chances of its further advances to 1.1300 can't be denied.

GBPUSD



Ever since the upbeat US Retail Sales dragged the GBPUSD from its month highs, the pair kept observing short-term descending trend-line which presently pushes the pair towards another upward slating TL, forming part of a triangle, at 1.3145 now. However, overbought RSI and a recently welcome print of UK CPI might pull the pair back to its 1.3200 nearby resistance, breaking which 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its July month upside and previously mentioned trend-line, around 1.3220, becomes crucial. Further, pair's break above 1.3220 can trigger its quick up-move to 1.3270 and the 23.6% Fibo level of 1.3320. During its additional run-up beyond 1.3320, the pair needs to clear the 1.3350 & the 1.3400 round figure prior to challenging the previous highs of 1.3480. On the downside, a clear break of 1.3145 could activate the pair's downside towards 1.3100 – 1.3090 zone and then to 1.3045 support. If at all the pair continues trading down below 1.3045, the 1.3000 psychological magnet might help the bears breathe else 1.2960 and the 1.2900 can again be seen on the chart.

AUDUSD



With the Reserve Bank of Australia's latest meeting minutes showing more favor for another rate-cut by the Aussie central banker, AUDUSD dropped heavily on Tuesday. The pair presently trades around 100-day SMA support of 0.7480, which if broken can further fetch the prices to 0.7450-45 short-term important support-zone, comprising 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – April upside and an ascending trend-line stretched since May-end. Should the pair decline below 0.7445, it can swiftly dip to 0.7360 and the 50% Fibo level of 0.7330 ahead of visiting the 0.7300 round figure. Alternatively, a pullback by the pair from present levels can have 0.7550, 0.7575 and the 0.7600 as nearby resistances to break before it could rise to 0.7680 trend-line resistance. Given the pair's capacity to surpass 0.7680, the 0.7740 & 0.7770 could pose small barriers to crack during the journey towards April high of 0.7835.

NZDUSD



Unlike AUDUSD, which is yet to clear its TL support, the NZDUSD already dropped heavily after it broke seven week old trend-line support, indicating a test to 50-day SMA support around 0.7000 – 0.6995 area. Should the pair chooses to extend its downside below 0.6995, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – July rally, around 0.6950 and the 0.6920 are likely supports that it can witness. However, pair's reversal from the current levels can propel it to the 0.7100 mark, adjacent to 23.6% Fibo, breaking which 0.7160 and the 0.7205 might hold its further upside captive. If the bulls fuel the pair beyond 0.7205, the 0.7290 and the 0.7330 are likely following resistances that can be quoted.

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Wednesday, 20 Jul, 2016 / 3:26

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Source : http://www.mtrading.com/analytics/technical-analysis/technical-outlook-eurusd-gbpusd-audusd-and-nzdusd

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