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Following last weekend's disappointing NFP, the US Dollar dropped against all its counterparts and the EURUSD, being no exception rallied to nearly a month's high by surpassing the 50-day SMA. However, Monday's profit-booking restricted the pair from extending its north-run, which then was carried forward on Tuesday when the pair is likely reversing towards re-testing 50-day SMA level of 1.1315. Given the pair drops below 1.1315, the 1.1240 and the 1.1215 likely small barriers for its clear before visiting the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its December 2015 – May 2016 upside, near 1.1200 round figure mark. Moreover, pair's further decline below 1.1200 can drag it to 1.1130 and then to the important 1.1100 support confluence, encompassing 200-day SMA and support-line of broader ascending trend-channel. Meanwhile, 1.1385 and the 1.1400 are likely nearby resistances that it could witness during its immediate U-turn, breaking which 1.1445, 1.1465 and the 1.1500 are expected numbers the pair might print on the chart. Should it manage to clear 1.1500, chances of its rally towards 1.1540 and to the 1.1620, near the May high can't be denied.


Even if the Reserve Bank of Australia matched general consensus of not altering its benchmark interest-rates on Tuesday, absence of any cues for further monetary easing helped building market sentiment that the last month's rate-cut was the end which in-turn propelled the AUDUSD towards registering heavy gains. The pair, at present trades around 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of January – April rally, near 0.7450, a closing break of which can help its challenge the 0.7475-85 horizontal resistance confluence, comprising 50-day SMA. If the pair surpasses the 0.7485, also clears the 0.7500 round figure mark, it can swiftly rise to 0.7575 and then to the 23.6% Fibo level of 0.7600 while its further advance beyond 0.7600 enables it to aim for 0.7680 and 0.7770 resistances. On the downside, 100-day SMA level of 0.7370 acts as immediate decisive support for the pair, breaking which 50% Fibo level around 0.7330 and the 0.7300 are likely to follow the suit. Given the pair keep extending its downturn below 0.7300, the 0.7280 might offer a small support to clear before revisiting the 0.7150-40 region.


Failure to clear three month old descending trend-line resistance, at 111.00 now, dragged the USDJPY towards testing 106.35; however, pair's recent bounce from the lows indicate its readiness to test 109.00 – 109.10 area. If at all the pair breaks above 109.10, the 110.20 might be a negligible halt that it could witness prior to again challenging the trend-line resistance of 111.00, which if conquered enables it to test the 200-day SMA for the first time since February, at 111.95 – 112.00 now. Alternatively, 107.00 and the 106.80 are adjacent support for the pair, breaking which 106.00 and the May month low around 105.50 could hold its further downside captive. Should the pair continue dipping below 105.50, it becomes vulnerable enough to drop towards 61.8% FE of its February – May downside, near 104.00 round figure mark.


While Friday's weaker US NFP dragged the USDCAD below 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of May 2015 – January 2016, consecutive strength of the Crude prices, Canada's main export, magnified the pair's weakness and made it to visit the 1.2760-50 horizontal support. Should the pair dips below 1.2750 on a closing basis, the 1.2600 becomes a quick stop, clearing which chances of its extended southward trajectory to May month lows of 1.2460 can't be denied. However, pair's reversal from the present levels can print 1.2830 and then the 1.2900 resistances active, breaking which 61.8% Fibo level of 1.2970 and the 1.3050 are following upside numbers that the pair trader should watch. On a further up-move beyond 1.3050, the pair can well target the 1.3110 prior to challenging the 1.3170-80 horizontal resistance.

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Tuesday, 07 Jun, 2016 / 2:43

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