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Technical Outlook: EURNZD, NZDJPY And EURJPY


Even as the 1.6100 – 1.6090 horizontal mark propelled the EURNZD towards a month's high, the pair continue to struggle with 200-day SMA level, at 1.6700, quickly followed by the eight month old descending trend-line resistance, around 1.6750. Given the pair manages to clear the 1.6750, it can swiftly rise towards 1.6830 and the 1.6940 upside levels, breaking which 1.7040 may provide another barrier during the pair's upward trajectory to 1.7240-60 horizontal-area, comprising 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its August – December 2015 downside. However, pair's another failure surpass the important SMA might again drag it to 23.6% Fibo level of 1.6480 and then to 1.6370. If the pair extend its pullback moves below 1.6370, the 1.6260 and the 1.6200 may act as small barriers for it to clear before revisiting the 1.6100 – 1.6090 horizontal support-zone. Moreover, pair's inability to stop the downtrend near 1.6090 makes it vulnerable to test the 1.5870 and the December 2015 lows around 1.5800 round figure mark.


NZDJPY's repeated failure to surpass the 100-day SMA again fetched the pair prices towards 73.20 – 73.00 horizontal support, which if broken can trigger its further downside towards August 2015 lows near 72.00. Should the pair dips below 72.00, the 61.8% FE of its April – August 2015 drop, at 70.80, can hold its intermediate decline towards 70.00 psychological magnet. If the pair fails to close below 73.00, the 74.00 may offer nearby resistance to it, breaking which 74.90 and the 75.60 are expected following upside levels that it needs to clear prior to revisiting the 76.70-80 area, comprising 100-day SMA and the 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of the said move. However, a year-long trend-line resistance, near 77.75-80, could confine its break above 76.80.


Having reversed from 123.50, the EURJPY seems dropping towards 121.65-75 horizontal support re-test, which if broken can drag the pair to 120.80 intermediate support prior to making it test the 61.8% FE of its January – April decline, near 120.00 round figure mark. If the pair maintains the south-run below 120.00, the 119.00 and the 118.70 are like following supports for traders to watch. Alternatively, pair's bounce from the current levels can witness 122.70 and the 123.30 as nearby resistance, surpassing which enables it to extend the recovery towards 124.00 and the 124.30, including 23.6% Fibo level. Given the pair's successful break above 124.30, the 124.80 and the 125.50 are expected upside numbers that it needs to clear in order to challenge the 125.70-80 resistance-zone, including four month old descending trend-line and 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement level.

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Tuesday, 10 May, 2016 / 1:43

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