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Technical Outlook: EURJPY, GBPJPY And CHFJPY


Having plunged on Thursday, mainly due to BoJ inaction, the EURJPY maintained its downside on Friday and is presently trading near the month's lows of 121.70, which if broken can drag the pair prices towards 61.8% FE of its December 2015– March 2016 downside, near 120.45. However, pair's further decline below 120.45 might be confined by the medium-term descending trend-channel support, around 119.00, and the February 2013 lows of 118.70, clearing which chances of its drop to 116.50 can't be denied. On the upside, 123.00 and the 123.50 are likely nearby resistances that could continue holding the pair's up-moves confined. If the pair successfully breaks above 123.50, the 124.70, 126.00 and the yesterday's high around 126.50 become consecutive upside numbers that the pair needs to surpass prior to targeting 38.2% Fibo level of previously mentioned downside, at 126.80, while pair's extended north-run beyond 126.80 might find it difficult to clear the 100-day SMA level of 127.30 and the channel resistance mark of 127.50.


Following the GBPJPY's inability to sustain four month old trend-line break on Thursday, the pair presently re-tests the same resistance-turned-support-line, lying at 156.00, breaking which the pair is likely extending its south-run to 154.70-50 support-zone before testing the 152.40 and the month's low of 151.60, which also comprising 61.8% FE of its February month decline. Given the pair's failure to stop the running decline at 151.60, it can drop to sub-150.00 psychological mark. However, oversold RSI indicates brighter chances of the pair's bounce to 157.50 immediate resistance, breaking which 158.40 and the 160.00 could be its next levels to mark. Should the pair continue trading above 160.00, the 161.50 and the 162.80 can offer intermediate resistance to it prior to visiting the 163.85-90 horizontal resistance.


Unlike EURJPY, which is struggling to clear the previous support and extend its downside, the CHFJPY already breached its early month lows and is indicating continuation of its southward trajectory towards 61.8% FE of its December 2015 – March 2016 downside, near 110.00. Though, support-line of the year-long downward slanting trend-channel, around 108.40 now, could restrict its additional decline, failing to which can drag the pair price further down towards November 2013 lows around 107.00. On the contrary, 112.00 and the 112.30 could restrict the pair's immediate advances, breaking which it could stretch its recovery to 114.00 and the 115.00 resistance marks. If at all the pair manage to surpass 115.00, the 116.30-50 resistance-zone, including 100-day SMA and the channel resistance, becomes an important area for the pair to clear, breaking which it becomes capable enough to witness 117.50 upside level.

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Monday, 02 May, 2016 / 2:25

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