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Technical Outlook: EURGBP, EURJPY, EURNZD And EURCHF

Even as two-month old descending trend-channel continue favoring the EURGBP downside, an unwelcomed shift in polls favoring "Brexit" triggered the pair's up-move towards a week's high of 0.7755. However, 100-day SMA and channel resistance-line, 0.7795 – 0.7800 is likely to continue restricting the pair's near-term efforts of rising, failing to which can quickly result the 0.7850 mark on the chart, including 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of November 2015 – April 2016 upside. Given the pair maintains the northward trajectory beyond 0.7850, the 0.7925-30 horizontal-line might offer intermediate resistance during the pair's effort to aim 0.8000 and the April highs of 0.8120. Alternatively, a daily close below 38.2% Fibo level of 0.7680 can again drag the pair to 0.7650 and the 0.7570 supports before revisiting the channel support, also including the 200-day SMA, near 0.7530-25 now. If at all the pair drops below 0.7525, the 0.7440 and the 61.8% Fibo level around 0.7410 are likely following downside numbers to witness.

EURJPY

EURJPY's repeated failures to surpass the four-month old descending trend-line, also including the 50-day SMA at present, dragged the pair to March lows on Wednesday, indicating further downside towards 121.25-30 support-line which confined its plunge during March, April and May months. Should the pair avoid respecting the 121.25 mark, the 61.8% FE of its December 2015 – March 2016 slide, around 120.30, quickly followed by the 120.00 psychological magnet become important supports for the pair traders to watch. On the upside 123.00 and the 123.60 are likely nearby resistances that the pair needs to confront prior to re-challenging 124.10-20 area, comprising SMA & mentioned trend-line. If at all the pair manages to close above 124.20, it can swiftly rise to 100-day SMA mark of 125.50 and then progress towards 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement level of June 2015 – March 2016 south-run, around 126.50.

EURNZD

Adding to the descending triangle formation which favors EURNZD downside, the pair slid below 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its August – December 2015 decline on Tuesday and carried the same south-run on Wednesday, signaling further weakness on the part of the pair to rest 1.6260 ahead of visiting the triangle support-line of 1.6110 – 1.6100 area. If the bears chooses to drag the pair down below 1.6100 on a closing basis, chances of its plunge towards 1.6000 psychological magnet and then towards December 2015 lows of 1.5800 can't be denied. On the contrary, pair's closing break above 23.6% Fibo level of 1.6475 might have to confront with 1.6540 and the 100-day SMA level of 1.6600 in order to witness 1.6655-60 and the 1.6700 round figure mark. Though, 1.6800, followed by the triangle resistance of 1.6870, seem capable enough to stop the pair's further advances beyond 1.6700.

EURCHF

Following its break of two-month old ascending trend-line support, the EURCHF maintained its slow downturn. As the pair continues its lower-high formation, it seems safe to expect that it is currently going down to 1.1030-25 support-zone, clearing which the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its February month slide, near 1.1000, followed by the 100-day SMA level of 1.0980, are likely consecutive levels it can print. Should the pair drops below 1.0980, the 1.0950 and the 1.0925 may offer buffer stands during its south-run to 1.0860, which if broken can drag the pair to February lows of 1.0810. Meanwhile, 1.1075 and the 1.1095 are likely nearby resistance that the pair needs to clear before challenging the four-month old trend-line resistance of 1.1120. Given the pair's sustained break above 1.1120, the 1.1160 could act as intermediate resistance for its rise towards February highs around 1.1200 round figure mark.

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Thursday, 02 Jun, 2016 / 2:06

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Source : http://www.mtrading.com/analytics/technical-analysis/technical-outlook-eurgbp-eurjpy-eurnzd-and-eurchf

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