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EURCHF's repeated failures to clear a month-old downward slanting trend-line dragged the pair prices below a short-term ascending trend-line support, indicating its further downside towards 1.0845 and the 1.0830 levels. Given the pair continue trading at lows below 1.0830, the 1.0815 and the 1.0800, followed by 1.0790-95 horizontal support, are likely crucial supports to watch, which if broken can further drag it to 1.0730-25 support-zone, including 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its June month slide. Should the pair reverses its recent breakdown, on near oversold RSI, the 1.0890 and the 61.8% Fibo level of 1.0920, adjacent to 1.0925 TL resistance, could confine its following pullback attempts. If the pair manages to surpass 1.0925, the 1.0950-55 and the 1.0980 might act as intermediate halts during its rally targeting Brexit-day highs of 1.1012-13.


With a sustained follow of month-old descending trend-channel, the GBPCHF presently trades around 1.2620 important support-mark, which comprises 61.8% FE of the Brexit-day plunge and the mentioned channel's lower-line. However, oversold RSI levels indicate fair chances of the pair's bounce towards 1.2670 and the 1.2700 immediate resistances. If the pair breaks above 1.2700, it becomes capable enough to challenge 1.2735, 1.2750 and the 1.2800 numbers on north-side. Meanwhile, a clear break below 1.2620 can quickly fetch the quote to 1.2550 and the July month lows of 1.2495. Moreover, pair's additional weakness below 1.2495 signals its downward trajectory towards 1.2000 psychological magnet, also including the 100% FE level; though, 1.2350 might act as a buffer.


On Thursday, the CHFJPY extended its bounce from 103.20 support marked on Wednesday. The pair now seems heading to 104.30-35 nearby resistance, breaking which 105.00 and the 105.20 can offer consecutive upside levels to observe. Given the pair successfully break above 105.20 mark, it needs to surpass 106.00 resistance before aiming the 50-day SMA level of 106.75. Though, pair's extended up-move beyond 106.75 might find it difficult to clear the descending trend-line mark of 107.60. On the downside, 103.20, 102.70 and the 102.00 can keep restricting the pair's decline before it may revisit the June lows of 101.78. If the pair declines below 101.78, chances of its plunge to the 61.8% FE level of 99.20 can't be denied.


Having failed to sustain the 0.7080-85 resistance-break, the NZDCHF seems coming down to re-test the 0.7025 support, breaking which 0.6985 can offer a halt to its decline before two-month old ascending trend-line support of 0.6955 comes into play. If the pair fails to stop its decline around 0.6955, the 0.6940-35 area, encompassing 50-day SMA and the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its April – July upside, becomes important to watch, which if broken can drag the pair to 0.6860 and the 50% Fibo mark of 0.6840. Alternatively, a clear break above 0.7085 can propel the pair to challenge 0.7180 and the July highs of 0.7227, breaking which its run beyond 0.7300, towards 61.8% FE level of 0.7335, becomes strong enough to expect.

Cheers and safe trading,

Anil Panchal.

Friday, 12 Aug, 2016 / 5:33

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