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Technical Checks: US Dollar Index, Gold And WTI Crude Oil

US Dollar Index [I.USDX]



Although market players' recent-run for the greenback helped the US Dollar Index (I.USDX) to surpass 200-day SMA for the first time in four-months, the gauge struggles around a downward slanting trend-line stretched since December 2015, which together with the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its December 2015 – May 2016 decline, near 97.30, holds the immediate Bulls captive. Given the index surpasses 97.30, it can quickly rise to 97.80 & 98.00 resistances, breaking which 98.60 & 99.00 are likely upside numbers to be seen on the chart. Further, the greenback gauge's additional advances beyond 99.00 needs to confront with 99.80-85 before challenging the 100.00 psychological magnet. On the downside, a close below 200-day SMA level of 96.60 can quickly drag it to 96.00 & the 95.50 ahead of visiting the 95.20-10 support-zone, including 38.2% Fibo and 100-day SMA. If at all the index declines below 95.10, also clears 95.00 round figure, chances of its 94.00 re-test can't be denied.

Gold



With an equidistant descending trend-channel restricting the Gold prices since more than a week, its further downside towards channel support & the 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of May – July upside, around 1307.50, becomes more likely. However, two-month old upward slanting trend-line, at 1303.50, might confine its additional south-run below 1307.50, which if broken can drag the yellow metal prices towards 1299, 1294 & the 50% Fibo level of 1287. Should it declines below 1287, the precious metal becomes weaker enough to reprint 1271 on the chart. Alternatively, a break above 1333-34, including channel resistance & 23.6% Fibo level, can continue limit the Gold's short-term upside, break of which can trigger its upside to 1347 & 1352-54 area. Given the bullion surpasses 1354, the 1362 might act as intermediate halt prior to its run-up towards 1375 "double-top", which if cleared can quickly flash 1388 & 1392 resistances.

WTI Crude Oil



Following its failure to clear 50.60, the WTI Crude prices kept running down, as shown by immediate TL; though, 43.55-35 horizontal area seems restricting the oil's present drop. Should the energy vehicle declines below 43.35, 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – June upside, at 42.70, 42.00 & the 200-day SMA level of 41.30 might be the downside numbers to witness. If its south-run below 41.30, the Crude might be ready to test 50% Fibo level of 39.80. Meanwhile, 100-day SMA level of 45.00 and the trend-line resistance of 45.70 are likely immediate resistance for the traders to watch, breaking which 23.6% Fibo level of 46.30 and the 47.50 again comes into play. Should it manage to surpass 47.50, the Crude then becomes strong contestant to aim for 49.10 and the 50.00 mark.

Follow me on twitter to discuss latest markets events @Fx_Anil.

Monday, 25 Jul, 2016 / 5:21

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Source : http://www.mtrading.com/analytics/technical-analysis/technical-checks-us-dollar-index-gold-and-wti-crude-oil

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