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Technical Checks: Important CHF Pairs


Having reversed from short-term rectangle resistance, adjacent to 0.9950, the USDCHF now struggles around the formation support of 0.9860; however, oversold RSI values, coupled with existing continuation pattern, favors the pair's another bounce towards 0.9885 immediate resistance. On a further up-move beyond 0.9885, the 0.9900 and the 0.9935 are likely buffer levels that the pair could aim prior to revisiting the 0.9950 mark. If the pair surpasses 0.9950, also clears the May month high of 0.9956, it becomes capable enough to aim for 1.0010-15 area. Alternatively, pair's drop below 0.9860 can quickly print 0.9830 on the chart, comprising 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of previous month rally, breaking which 0.9795 and the 38.2% Fibo level of 0.9760 could hold the pair's further downside. Given the pair maintains the south-run below 0.9760, the 0.9715 and the 50% Fibo level of 0.9700 are expected downside numbers during its plunge towards 0.9680 support.


GBPCHF's failure to clear the five-month old descending trend-line resistance, at 1.4600 now, triggered the pair's drop towards two week's low. The pair now trades around a two-month old ascending trend-line support of 1.4235-40, which also includes 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of November 2015 – April 2016 downside. If the pair closes below 1.4240, chances of its plunge towards 100-day SMA level around 1.4090-85 can't be denied. Moreover, pair's further decline below 1.4085 can mark 1.3970 and the 23.6% Fibo level of 1.3920 on the chart. Should the pair closes above 1.4285, the 1.4300 and the 1.4415 are likely immediate resistances it could mark. During its further up-moves beyond 1.4415, the 50% Fibo level of 1.4490, followed by the 1.4600 trend-line are crucial for the pair traders to watch, which if surpassed enables the pair bulls to mark 1.4740, including 61.8% Fibo, and the 1.4835 resistances.


Following its U-turn from two-months old descending trend-line, the CHFJPY now aim to revisit the 61.8% FE level of its December 2015 – March 2016 slide, near 109.85-90, which the pair failed to clear during May month. If the JPY bulls drag the pair to close below 109.85, it becomes vulnerable enough drop towards October – November 2013 lows around 106.70; though, 108.30 and the 107.50 might offer intermediate supports. Meanwhile, a daily close above 110.85 nearby resistance enables the pair to mark 111.50 prior to challenging the trend-line resistance of 112.20, which if broken can trigger its northward trajectory towards 112.90 and the 100-day SMA level of 114.20. Moreover, pair's sustained up-move above 114.20 can recall 115.30 and the 116.00 numbers.


NZDCHF's inability to clear the 0.6760 clearly showed that the five month old symmetrical triangle continue governing the pair's move, signaling its present round of downside towards 0.6670 and then to 50-day SMA level of 0.6640. Given the pair's extended decline below 0.6640, the 0.6585 and the triangle support of 0.6550 are likely following levels that it could witness while a closing break of 0.6550 can quickly fetch the pair prices to 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its August – November 2015 rally, near 0.6455. However, a break of 0.6740 can again enable the pair to conquer with 0.6760 resistance, which if broken could mark 0.6800 and the 0.6830 on the chart prior to challenging the November 2015 highs of 0.6880. On a further up-move beyond 0.6880, the pair can rise to 0.6930 and the 0.7000 psychological magnet.

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Friday, 03 Jun, 2016 / 3:27

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