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Following its inability to sustain the 1.1400 break, the EURUSD now trades around 1.1220 – 1.1210 horizontal support area, comprising 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its March – May upside. Considering the EUR weakness ahead of the June 2013 referendum polls, coupled with crucial US details scheduled during the week, chances are higher that the pair might extend its recent downturn towards 1.1150-45 ascending trend-line support, which if broken can quickly drag the prices to 1.1100 round figure mark. Should the pair continue dipping down below 1.1100, the 1.1050 and the 1.0950 are likely downside numbers that the chart could portray. If the pair witnesses a pullback from current levels, 1.1270 and the 1.1300 are expected nearby resistances prior to witnessing 1.1350 and the downward slanting trend-line level of 1.1390. Moreover, pair's successful break above 1.1390, also clearing the 1.1400, can propel it towards 1.1465-70 resistance-area.


Even if the on-going rout of safe-haven buying dragged the USDJPY towards 105.60, the 105.55-50 immediate support confluence, comprising the May month lows and support-line of adjacent descending trend-channel, coupled with oversold RSI, might hold the pair's further downside captive. If the pair bounces back from the present levels, the 106.55-60 and the channel resistance-line of 107.35-40 are likely upside numbers that it could print while a break of 107.40 can extend the recovery beyond 108.00 towards 108.50 and the 109.15-20. Alternatively, pair's continued south-run below 105.50 might hold around 104.80 before testing the 61.8% FE of February – May decline, near 104.00 round figure mark. In an extreme drop below 104.00, the pair becomes vulnerable to test 103.00 and the 102.50 support levels.


With the GBPUSD's sustained break below 1.4260-50, the pair becomes weaker enough to test the 1.4050-40 horizontal support which might cause bears to take a halt. Given the pair drops below 1.4040, also clears the 1.4000 psychological magnet, chances of its drop to February lows, around 1.3835, can't be denied. Moreover, pair's additional slide below 1.3835 opens door for its southward trajectory towards 61.8% FE of its October 2015 – February 2016 downside, near 1.3640. Meanwhile, a clear break above 1.4260-50 area, including 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of the pair's mentioned downturn, can trigger its short-term recovery towards 1.4350 and the 1.4400 mark. However, a successful break above 1.4400 still needs to confront with June 2013 result, which if in the favor of "Bremain", can propel the pair to challenge nine-month old trend-line resistance, at 1.4675 now.


While recent weakness in Crude prices, Canada's main export-item, caused USDCAD's bounce from 1.2650-45, the pair presently confronts with 50-day SMA, at 1.2870 now, with the present USD strength indicating a break above the same and its advance towards 1.2950 resistance, a daily closing below 1.2870 can again drag the pair to 1.2760 and then to 1.2650-45. If the pair continue declining below 1.2645, the 1.2600 can offer a buffer rest-point before it could plunge to 1.2510 – 1.2500 horizontal support, which if broken on a closing basis, can make the pair vulnerable to witness 1.2250-60 support-zone. On the upside, a break above 1.2950 still needs to surpass the 61.8% Fibonacci Retracement of its May 2015 – January 2016 upside, near 1.2975, and the 1.3000 psychological magnet prior to targeting the 1.3050 and the 1.3170-80 resistance confluence, including 100-day SMA & horizontal-line. On a successful trading beyond 1.3180, the pair becomes capable enough to confront with 50% Fibo level around 1.3300 mark.

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Wednesday, 15 Jun, 2016 / 2:18

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