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Even if the 200-day SMA recently confined the EURUSD's downturn after breaking short-term ascending trend-line, the pair is still struggling at the support-turned-resistance TL and continues remaining weak unless breaking 1.1210 mark on a closing basis. However, 200-day SMA mark of 1.1145 becomes an important support, which if broken can trigger the pair's south-run to 1.1070-65 support-confluence, comprising 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its December 2015 – May 2016 rally and a broader support-line. Given the pair continue trading down below 1.1065, chances of its plunge to 1.1030 and then to 1.0950 can't be denied. On the upside, a clear break of 1.1210 may extend the pair's pullback to 1.1280 before fueling it to 1.1300 round figure mark TL resistance. In case of the pair's additional run-up beyond 1.1300, the 23.6% Fibo level of 1.1360 and the 1.1420-30 are likely upside figures to be observed on the chart.


While 50-day SMA and near-term descending trend-line have been successfully confining the USDJPY's up-move, 101.30 acts as an immediate support for the pair traders to watch prior to looking at the 101.00 round figure. Should the Bank of Japan provides stronger signals to fuel the JPY, the pair can test 100.50 and the 100.00 psychological magnet, also including upward slanting trend-line. Given the pair continue declining below 100.00, the 99.50 might act as an intermediate halt ahead of printing new lows of 2016 below 98.80. Meanwhile, pair's break of 50-day SMA mark of 102.70 and the 103.00 TL can quickly print 103.50 on the face of the quote; however, its further north-run might find it difficult to surpass 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of its January – June decline, near 104.20. If the pair manages to close above 104.20, it becomes capable enough to flash 105.50-55 resistance marks.


Failure to surpass 0.7565-70 horizontal resistance seems presently dragging the AUDUSD towards re-testing 0.7530 range-support, breaking which 0.7510 – 0.7500 area, comprising immediate ascending trend-line and 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement of September downturn, could halt the pair's southward attempts. In case of the pair's plunge below 0.7500, it becomes liable to test 0.7475 and the 0.7440 supports before printing 0.7400 round figure. Alternatively, a clear break of 0.7570 enables the pair to test 0.7600 and the 0.7615 resistances, breaking which 0.7635 and the 0.7660 are likely consecutive resistances to pop-up on the chart. Moreover, pair's sustained trading above 0.7660 could help the traders to witness 0.7700 and the early-month highs of 0.7730.


Alike AUDUSD, the NZDUSD is also struggling around horizontal resistance, which possesses 0.7355-60 area in case of this pair; however, the NZD seems comparatively stronger and might fuel the pair's rally to 0.7385 and the 0.7425 on the break of 0.7360. Given the pair trades above 0.7425, the 0.7440 can offer a buffer rest during its northward trajectory to 0.7485 and to the 0.7500 round figure resistance. If the pair manage to trade beyond 0.7500, the 61.8% FE of its July – September rally, at 0.7565 becomes consecutive upside figure to observe. Though, near overbought RSI levels and a surprise element of FOMC could again drag the pair to 0.7320 and the 0.7290 adjacent supports, breaking which chances of its additional downside to 0.7250 and then to 0.7200 become brighter. Should the pair maintain its weakness below 0.7200, the 0.7140 and the 0.7100 are likely following supports that it needs to test.

Cheers and Safe Trading,

Anil Panchal

Wednesday, 21 Sep, 2016 / 5:09

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