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Technical analysis EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY 31 July 2013


Just as expected, the pair continued to consolidate in the range limited by the levels of 1.3300/1.3295-1.3250. All attempts to cross the range have failed. After testing the strength of the support at 1.3250 the price rose and is now trading at 1.3270/80. The indicators are mostly neutral, so we have reason to expect a continued sideway trend. Given all major news expected today (the publication of the Fed’s monetary policy), high volatility can be expected by the end of the session. The previous forecasts remain relevant: if the pair crosses the resistance at 1.3300, the rise will be limited by the resistance at 1.3330/50 or even the level of 1.3320/10. A drop below the support 1.3250 and further consolidation will give reason to expect the expansion of the correction to the levels of 1.3200/1.3170. Crossing the support at 1.3150/60 will signal of a reversal to the downtrend.


The pair confirmed the previous assumptions: crossed the uptrend line (the new version, the blue line) and created good conditions for a fall. The price has dropped to yesterday’s target levels of 1.5280, 1.5240, crossed them, and is now trying to test the support range of 1.5220-1.5160. The pair is trading at 1.5220/30. The indicators are showing increasing bearish sentiment: the MACD fell into a negative territory, the SS is approaching the oversold area, the R% has already fixed in the oversold area. Obviously, in this situation the price is expected to fall and cross the support level of 1.5220-1.5160. If the price crosses the level mentioned above, this will signal of a reversal to a medium-term downtrend. However, before this cross, the bulls may resume the uptrend.


There are no significant changes in this instrument: the price keeps on testing the support level of 97.60/70 and is now trading at this level. The indicators continue to support further fall, yet the situation remains uncertain. The previous forecasts are still relevant: should the price cross the current support level, it will then fall to the level of 97.00 – the next obstacle on the way down, which may trigger the growth resumption. Should the pair cross the resistance at 99.00/10, this will signal that the bullish sentiment remains dominant in the market.

Wednesday, 31 Jul, 2013 / 11:54

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