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Technical analysis EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD 5 August 2013


The bears failed to push the pair to the lower levels: the support at 1.3200 was not broken and caused a pullback up. Now the pair is trading at 1.3270/60. Some indicators, like the MACD and the R% began to change their dynamics into a move up, which may indicate a resumed rise, but the SS shows a fall, which supposes that the move up could be corrective and indicating upcoming fall. The situation became uncertain and can be clarified in two cases: if the pair crosses the resistance at 1.3340/45 (a local maximum), this will announce a move to the target at 1.3410/20, while a move down, crossing the support at 1.3200, and fixing below will indicate a high probability of a change in the medium-term trend. Crossing the level of 1.3150/60 will confirm this forecast.


The pair confirmed the expectations that fundamental data may bring serious adjustments to the market dynamics. The price received support at the level of 1.5090/1.5100 and rose. The pair is now trading at 1.5300/20. This situation and the indicators, which have showed the rise, support continued move up. However, on its way up, the pair will face the downtrend line (red line), which may lead to two highs and become a major resistance (that may change the trend into bearish). Should the pair cross this obstacle at 1.5350/60, the assumptions of a downtrend will be revised and the traders may expect further bullish sentiment: a rise to 1.5400/10 and then to 1.5520/30. A kickback from the resistance at 1.5350/60 will suppose further fall.


The pair confirmed the assumptions on its fall. The price reached the level of 0.8850/40; after obtaining support at this level, the pair pulled back up, and is now trading at 0.8900/10. Some indicators have weakened their bearish sentiment, but the SS, which got stuck in the oversold area supposes a price fall to the targets at 0.8810/00 – 0.8775/80 mentioned earlier. The bearish scenario will be no longer relevant if the price rises above the resistance level of 0.9120/10. At the same time, there is a high probability of a sideway correction in the range limited by 0.9000/10 – 0.8850/40.

Monday, 05 Aug, 2013 / 12:06

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