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Technical analysis EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD 17 July 2013

EUR/USD: progressing higher

Eurodollar has moved higher and has now reached the first upside target at 1.3155 and is consolidating against the trend-line situated there, which is providing resistance to further upside. However I expected it will break through this line and continue higher not and a decisive break above the trend-line and the 1.3174 highs would give strong confirmation of a move up to the next target at 1.3250 followed by 1.3300. The less likely alternative is that the exchange rate starts to fall back down to the major support level at 1.3000-50 where three major moving averages are clustered and offering support.

GBP/USD: trend-line broken

Cable has broken above a major trend-line drawn from the mid-June highs. This is a significant move which indicates the pair will now most probably rise up to a much higher level at 1.5435, although a nearer-term target lies at 1.5300 where the 50-day MA is situated. Currently the pair is in a sideways consolidation and a rally above the 1.5170 level would provide added confirmation of this expected continuation higher. Alternatively, a move below 1.5045 could see the pair fall to major support at the level of the monthly pivot at 1.5000.

AUD/USD: harami reversal

The aussie formed a textbook harami candlestick reversal pattern at the lows on Monday and then bounced. It has broken out above a trend-line and this is a significant bullish sign, generating a target up at 0.9493, with a break above 0.9260 providing strong bullish confirmation. Price is pulling back now and there is a possibility it might re-touch the trend-line at 0.9180 before it starts rising again. A break back down below the trend-line at 0.9140 would be required to take a more bearish short-term view. Longer-term the trend remains bearish, however, and will probably resume in time, taking us back lower down to an eventual target at 0.8010, generated from a breakout of the multi-month triangle.

Wednesday, 17 Jul, 2013 / 2:16

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