More rains forecast is bullish for soybean
Continuing rains since late December in Argentine have resulted in floods, which may prevent farmers from finishing sowing and replanting of soybeans. Lower planting area will result in lower crop which is bullish for soybean. Will soybean prices rebound?
Rains in Argentine have since late December have resulted in floods across Cordoba, southern Santa Fe, northern Buenos Aires, and Entre Rios. Analysts estimate up to 1 million hectares of soybeans in Argentina may not get planted if farmers are not able to complete sowings in time, including the sowings of second-crop beans and the replanting of washed out first-crop fields. The soybean planting window in central Argentina closes about January 10 and, in case flooded areas do not dry up in time to replant the soybeans, about 3m tonnes of soybean production can be lost. Such a worst case outcome will be bullish for soybeans prices.
On the daily timeframe SOYBEAN: D1 has been trading with negative bias after retracing to five-month in the end of October.
- The Donchian channel is tilted downward indicating downtrend.
- The Parabolic indicator hhas formed a buy signal.
- The MACD indicator gives a neutral signal.
- The stochastic oscillator is crossing rising which is a bullish sign.
We believe a bullish momentum will develop after the price closes above the last fractal high at 1027.40, breache above the 50-day moving average MA(50). That level can be used as an entry point for placing a pending order to buy. The stop loss can be placed below the Parabolic signal at 992.9, confirmed also by the lower Donchian channel. After placing the order, the stop loss is to be moved every day to the next fractal low, following Parabolic signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. If the price meets the stop loss level (992.9) without reaching the order (1027.40), we recommend cancelling the position: the market has undergone internal changes which were not taken into account.
Summary of technical analysis:
| Position | Buy |
| Buy stop | Above 1027.40 |
| Stop loss | Below 992.9 |