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Strong Chinese data fails to excite markets, GBP rallies back, Bank of Canada to surprise?

- Chinese economy expanded 6.7% y/y in Q3. On a seasonally adjusted basis, it expanded by 1.8% q/q changed from the prior read indicating important stabilisation

- Growth was supported by domestic demand (government spending and property markets) as the external environment remains soft, however, property sector prices continue to accelerate, fueling concerns of an asset bubble

- UK: PM’s first EU summit: Expect significant push back from Brussels, yet recent softening of the hard line position suggests that there is room for negotiation on Brexit

- Though long term investment uncertainty remains high, we suspect that the panic button which sent the GBPUSD down to 1.2090 needs to be reset as GBP traders will become increasingly numb to the Brexit hype, rather than reacting to every headline, allowing GBP to appreciate during periods of calm

- In the longer term, as we get closer to spring 2017 we have a bearish call for the GBPUSD.

- The Bank of Canada is expected to opt for the status quo by maintaining rates at 0.50%

- Despite the fact that markets have not priced in any rate cut, we believe it to be a possibility as policymakers expect lower growth for 2017

- The loonie should remain weak and we target USDCAD to head higher until year-end with 1.35 representing a decent target over the medium-term

 

Risk appetite firmed in the Asian session boosted by the stronger Chinese economic data however, volumes remain low. In the US session equity markets rallied as investors got solid corporate earnings plus encouraging US inflation data (core CPI +0.1% m/m vs +0.2% consensus). In commodities, oil continued to linger around the $50 handle ahead of today inventory data. The Nikkei rose 0.21% yet the Hang Seng and Shanghai Composite fell -0.30 and -0.165 respectively. In the FX markets, USD trading was balanced but no significant level were damages as trading remains range bound ahead of the ECB meeting. USD weaker as Fed officials have once again provide a mixed message as to the timing of the next interest rate hike. The US yield curve steepen paused as the 30 year yield declined to 2.500% from 2.580% on Monday. Data released today indicates that the China economy expanded 6.7% y/y in Q3. On a seasonally adjusted basis, the economy expanded by 1.8% q/q changed from the prior read indicating important stabilization. Growth was supported by domestic demand (government spending and property markets) as the external environment remains soft. However, property sector prices continue to accelerate, fueling concerns of an asset bubble. Micro tuning measures by the Chinese authorities have tightened lending polices yet a cooling effect has not been seen. USDCNY is near a 6-year high as the PBoC fix was set at 6.7326 indicating that the central bank’s strategy for gradual RMB deprecation.

Markets will be watching the results of UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s first EU summit in Brussels. We should expect significant push back from Brussels, yet recent softening of the hard line position suggests that there is room for negotiation on Brexit. The GBP corrected sharply as the UK High Court cleared the way for the parliament to vote on the details for any exit agreement with the EU. This should limit the probability of a “hard exit”, which scared investors into dumping sterling. Article 50 should still get triggered by March as the Parliament does not have the right to block. While long term investment uncertainty remains high, we suspect that the panic button which sent the GBPUSD down to 1.2090 needs to be reset. We anticipate GBP traders will become increasingly numb to the Brexit hype, rather than reacting to every headline. This should allow GBP to appreciate during periods of calm. However, in the longer term, as we get closer to spring 2017 we have a bearish call for the GBPUSD. Not only will Article 50 be launched, but we anticipate the Fed will raise rates. Elsewhere, UK headline CPI surprised to the upside coming in at 1.0% y/y. However, we should not read too much into this single print as clothing and footwear was primarily responsible for the unexpected jump. While GBP depreciation has forced some consumer goods prices higher, the volatile nature of the goods indicated that the probability of sustained price increases is less likely. GBPUSD has firmed above 1.2127 support, extension of current bullish monument to 1.2490 should be expected. We would buy sell-offs for bounce at 1.2490 where we would reverse our positions.

Yann Quelenn, market analyst: The Bank of Canada is expected to opt for the status quo by maintaining rates at 0.50%. Markets only expect Canadian policymakers to lower growth expectations for 2017.  The 2016 targets stand right now at 1.3% and 2.2% for 2017. Moreover, financial markets are also pricing in that there will be no change in monetary policy until the end of next year. This sentiment is based on the fact that oil prices are one of the key drivers of the BoC's monetary policy. The strong volatility on this commodity as well as the low prices made the BoC lower rates twice last year. Oil prices have bounced back but prices remain relatively low.

From our vantage point, despite markets having clearly not priced a rate cut at all, we believe that this may still be a possibility. The truth is that there is every reason for the rate cut, it is just that the markets are not betting on it. In any case, this would be a very aggressive move from the BoC.

Indeed, Canadian economic data is on the soft side and there are nonetheless concerns about the state of the Canadian economy. Unemployment is still lying on the 7% range and inflation is not picking up. Even worse, the CPI has slumped to its lowest in two years to 1.1% y/y. In addition, the latest retail sales for July have disappointed once more, printing at -0.1% m/m - the third straight negative month.

Currency wise, the loonie should remain weak and we target the USDCAD to head higher until the end of this year. 1.35 represents a decent target over the medium-term.” ---

 

Traders will be watching UK labor market data, which is expected to show little evidence of damage caused by Brexit. In the US, Housing starts and building permits will be released. Finally, the final US Presidential debate will give Republican candidate Donald Trump one last chance to influence his declining poll number on a national level.

Wednesday, 19 Oct, 2016 / 9:36

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Source : http://en.swissquote.com/fx/news

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