Price corrected lower from the levels around 1280 to 1284 as per my previous analysis and has now reached a key support area (1203 – 1220). The long term weekly trend is still down but the medium term bullish channel is more relevant for the current price action. The last week’s candle has a relatively small range and the close was not that far below from the open. This is a sign of momentum slowing down. Price is at an area that resisted price moves higher in December last year (now support) and the rising trendline is getting close. In addition, the 50% Fibonacci level is right at the last week’s low. Nearest support and resistance levels are at 1222 and 1251, while the next levels are at 1203 and 1284. Fibonacci retracement levels of 50% and 61.8% coincide with the 1222 and 1203 support levels.
Gold, Daily:
The regression channel tool provides us a slightly different picture of the rising medium term trend. The move above 1284 level was an overshoot and now the price has reached the lower end of the channel. As the lower Bollinger Bands also reside at the current levels it is safe to assume that this is an important price region in technical sense. In addition the Stochastics oscillator is giving a signal that momentum is reversing while the indicator is below the oversold threshold. The nearest important support and resistance levels are the same in the daily time frame: 1222 and 1251.
Gold, 240 min:
Price followed roughly the bear trend channel I drew in my previous analysis and provided many shorting opportunities for our traders. Now that the price has reached an important support level it has reacted higher. The Stochastics is getting close to overbought area and the price is approaching both the upper Bollinger bands and a sideways move between 1233 and 1245. This should slow the price down and cause it to test the support area again.
Conclusion:
There is a very good chance that Gold has bottomed and will now create a higher low somewhere close to the current levels. There are several technical factors supporting price and the price movements since the Swiss election (rejecting the increase in country’s Gold reserves) have been pretty much what I anticipated at the time (a move higher to the upper end of the long term channel). Now price is at key support levels and at the upper end of the potential bottoming formation (between 1131 and 1222). It is likely that this will act as a zone from which the price of Gold can launch higher. This view is confirmed if we’ll now see a higher weekly low (last week’s candle hints that we might get one) close to the current levels. In fact, the whole range As I said before these are the levels where I would be interested in adding to longer term Gold positions. A lower high would be a negative and increase a risk of price moving lower.
In the short term picture, the price is at the time of writing close to a minor resistance level at which the price action should be monitored for momentum reversal signals. As the price usually never turns on a dime, it is reasonable to expect that there will be volatility or sideways move before the price of Gold can turn higher in the weekly time frame. Short term traders should take advantage of this and look for intraday momentum reversal signals (as per my teaching in the webinars) and some of those intraday positions could be turned in to swing trades as the price is at key higher timeframe support levels.
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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.