Palladium, Weekly
Palladium has been trading sideways in a wide range since October last year. In the process market has created a lower weekly high and has now moved close to support levels. This suggests that in there is weakness in the long term picture but it doesn’t mean there can’t be short term rallies. Stochastics oscillator is now oversold and price is trading at lower Bollinger bands. This highlights the fact that price trading fairly close to important higher time frame support. Nearest support level is at 723.00 while the 23.6% Fibonacci resistance level at 767 practically coincides with a resistance created by a weekly pivot low 772.10. The fact that this region coincides with a 38.2% Fibonacci level when drawn from the year 2011 low the 2014 high increases its significance as a resistance level.
Palladium, Daily
The daily down trend that has been in force since the beginning of this month has taken Palladium inside a daily pivot near the weekly support level . This has caused the downside momentum to wane a bit and lifted Stochastics oscillator slightly higher. Nearest daily support level at 723 is the same as in the weekly chart. There is some resistance right above the current prices from the sideways moved seen last week. Nearest significant resistance after the sideways move above the 739.35 is at 767.
Palladium, 240 min
Since June 8th the down trend in Palladium has been changing the slope to less bearish (black channel vs. blue and red regression channel lines). A sign that buyers are slowly stepping in and trying to create a reversal as price is getting close to a major support. Stochastics is pointing higher suggesting that price might be actually doing just that. However, there are resistance levels ahead and it probably takes some short term consolidation before price can turn higher. Nearest intraday support level is at 731.32 while the bottom of the sideways range above at 739.35 is likely to act as a resistance. The next more significant resistance level is in the region of 746 to 750 where the 23.6% Fibonacci level, 50 period SMA and the upper Bollinger bands coincide.
Conclusion
Long term picture is a sideways market with a bearish slant to it as price has just recently made lower high and the March low was a lower low especially on a closing basis. The short to medium term picture has potential turn bullish as price has moved close to levels that sent price considerably higher in March. Therefore, we are looking for momentum reversal signals above 723 resistance this week. The daily chart suggests that the short term move has potential to 767 (23.6% Fibonacci level).
Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
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