OPEC decision is focused

Iran seemed compromise in the OPEC meeting in Vienna on the first day. OPEC may increase the supply so oil price fell on Thursday morning but the decreasing U.S. crude oil inventories supported Brent held above 73.5 dollar per barrel. The final agreement of OPEC and non OPEC countries is focused that it may extend to limit supply 1.8 million barrel per day to the end of 2018 or not. Therefore, Brent may swing flat between 73.30–75.30 dollar per barrel on Friday.
Jerome Powell signaled that hiking interest rate will need even the trade war is staring affect to U.S. economy combined with the different policy between Fed and ECB support U.S. dollar hold steady. However, I think euro may hold above 1.1500 dollar and move sideways around 1.1500-1.1600 dollar and German manufacturing PMI may pressure euro fall to support line. Meanwhile, British pound may continue its bearish trend, if BoE won’t signal the next interest rate rise. I suggest support line at 1.1300 dollar and resistant line at 1.3230 dollar.
Loonie has the obvious bullish trend after broke 78.6% resistance on Fibo levels so it may try to rise up to next resistant line at 1.3386 points. If Canadian economic indices release lower than expected, USD/CAD may test the resistant line. I think Canadian data may release mixed: Retail sales and core retail sales maybe good and Core CPI and CPI may reach the forecast so USD/CAD may not break the resistance and may fall a little bit.
The largest Russian Bank “Sberbank” announced to make financial instrument by cryptocurrencies under Russian law. Alfa-Bank in Russia also will do this progress. This service may extend the ecosystem of crypto users in Russia. Bitcoin price did not fall down after the South Korea “Bithump” crypto exchanges was stolen on Wednesday. If Bitcoin can rise over 6,800 USD, It may rise up to 7,300 USD.
Economic indices in focus:
UK: BoE Gov Carney speaks at 03.15 a.m.
Germany: Manufacturing PMI (Jun) at 14.30 p.m
Europe: EU Finance Ministers Meeting
Canada: CPI, Core CPI (May) and Retail sales, Core retail sales (April) at 19.30 p.m.

By Niramon Nitnitiphruet
Financial analyst, Olymp Trade.

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