Oil added almost 5% against the backdrop of the possible conflict in Middle East

Brent crude has got over the important mark of $65 per barrel and added about $3 per day (or 4.7%). The asset left the $60.0-62.2 consolidation zone, where it had been traded since the beginning of the month and broke the mid-term downtrend line. Given the increased market volatility in recent months and rising tensions in Middle East, the quotes can be expected to test the $66.6-67.3 area. An optimistic forecast is the price recovery up to $70/b in the coming weeks.
The quotations grew on the news news about the downed US drone. Iran said it had shot it down over its territory, while the US defence department claimed that it was destroyed in the international airspace over the Strait of Hormuz. The New York Times reports that after that, Donald Trump approved strikes on Iran, but canceled the operation at the last moment. In an interview with reporters, he suggested that this was a “stupid mistake” made by one of the Iranian generals. Everything seems to indicate that the president is not going to get involved in a new war in Middle East, because he focused on the 2020 election race. In this case, Iran may try to aggravate the situation to put Washington under pressure and force the US to soften its demands in the negotiations.