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NZDCAD, NZDCHF And CADCHF: Technical Overview


While broader downward slanting trend-channel resistance, coupled with 50-day SMA, continue pushing the NZDCAD towards south, the pair presently trades around 0.8750-45 support-zone, including the March low, clearing which it can quickly drop to 0.8715 and the 0.8660 downside numbers prior to re-visiting 0.8585-80 horizontal support-line. Given the pair's sustained downside below 0.8580, lower-line of the mentioned channel, at 0.8515, becomes important for the pair traders to watch, which if broken can magnify its southward trajectory towards 0.8430 and then towards 0.8300 levels. On the upside, 0.8820 and the 0.8880 are likely nearby resistances that the pair could witness during its bounce, breaking which 50% Fibonacci Retracement of its August –December 2015 upside, near 0.8920, followed by 50-day SMA level of 0.8940 and the channel resistance of 0.8955, could limit its further advance. If the pair breaks the medium-term channel resistance on a closing basis, it becomes capable enough to rally towards 0.9050 and the 0.9115-20 resistances.


Following the NZDCHF's reversal from 0.6460-55 support-zone, comprising 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of its August – December 2015 upside, the pair again failed to break the descending trend-line resistance, stretched from December highs, indicating a pullback towards 0.6685 nearby support. However, 23.6% Fibo and the 50-day SMA level, around 0.6620-15, might hold its further downside, break of which opens the door for the pair's dip to 0.6540 and then to 0.6460-55 re-test. Should the pair extends the south-run below 0.6455, it can plunge to 0.6390 and then to 50% Fibo level of 0.6325. Alternatively, 0.6760 and the trend-line resistance of 0.6785 could hold the pair's immediate recovery, clearing which the 0.6830 might act as small barrier which can trigger its north-run to 0.6900 mark. Moreover, pair's successful up-move beyond 0.6900 could aim towards 61.8% FE level of 0.7025.


Even as the short-term ascending trend-channel signals the CADCHF up-move, resistance-line of the broader upward slanting channel, coupled with 61.8% FE of its January – March upside, also including the November 2015 highs, at 0.7735-40, becomes an important level for the pair to clear. Given the pair surpasses 0.7740, the resistance-line of the immediate channel, adjacent to 0.7800 round figure mark, might confine its further upside, failing to which can propel its northward trajectory towards 0.7900 level. Meanwhile, 0.7630 and the 0.7600 becomes nearby supports for the pair traders to watch, breaking which short-term channel's support, at 0.7560, comes into play, which if broken can accelerate its downside to 0.7460 and then towards 0.7330. Should the pair fails to hold the 0.7330 mark, the 0.7250-45 and the broader channel support of 0.7210 are likely consecutive levels that it could witness during further decline.

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Monday, 25 Apr, 2016 / 4:28

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