Today’s NFP (Non-Farm Payroll) numbers show the U.S unemployment rate at 5.8% .This figure reflects the number of unemployed in the USA who are collecting unemployment assistance from the government. The figure has been coming down steadily since it hit a high of 11.5% in July 2009 as reported by Reuters. To get a clear picture of true unemployment in the USA take a look at the table below as prepared by the U.S bureau of Labor Statistics. The U6 number will give the true unemployment picture in the U.S. (The "U-6" includes two groups of people: 1. "Marginally attached workers" - people who are not actively looking for work, but who have indicated that they want a job and have looked for work (without success) sometime in the past 12 months. This class also includes "discouraged workers" who have completely given up on finding a job because they feel that they just won't find one.
2. People who are looking for full-time work but have to settle on a part-time job due to economic reasons. This means that they want full-time work, but can't find it). Let’s keep in mind also that the U.S total work force is shrinking. Following last month's total collapse in the participation rate, dropping to 36 year lows, this month there was a modest improvement in the composition of the labor force, with the Household Survey suggesting the ranks of the Employed rose by 683K people, while the Unemployed actually declined by 267K, leading to a drop of the people not in the labor force to 92.378MM from 92.584MM. In other words, a little over 101 million Americans are unemployed or out of the labor force. As described in the chart below by the U.S Department of Labor an eye popping 11.5% of the total American workforce is unemployed.
HOUSEHOLD DATA [Percent] | |||||||||
Measure | Not seasonally adjusted | Seasonally adjusted | |||||||
Oct. | Sept. | Oct. | Oct. | June | July | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. | |
U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force | 3.7 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 |
U-2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force | 3.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 |
U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force (official unemployment rate) | 7.0 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 7.2 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 5.8 |
U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers | 7.4 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 6.4 | 6.2 |
U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force | 8.3 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 7.5 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 7.1 |
U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force | 13.2 | 11.3 | 11.1 | 13.7 | 12.1 | 12.2 | 12.0 | 11.8 | 11.5 |
Content Provided by Barry Sendach
Forex Global Solutions
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