Nasdaq, Weekly:
Nasdaq was the world’s first electronic stock market when it began trading in 1971. This is very fitting for a technology index that nowadays includes all the major technology names that have a global presence. In HotForex MT4 platform this index can be traded under the name of USA 100. The biggest stocks in this index include technology names such as Apple, Microsoft and Google. As these stocks are investment driven (when businesses invest in computers, software and infrastructure these companies do well) their price behaviour can be seen as an indication of things to come for the whole of the stock market. Technology is also the heaviest weighted sector in the S&P 500 index which means that movements in technology shares and Nasdaq will have a significant impact on S&P 500. Let’s see how Nasdaq index has been trading lately and what can we learn from its movements.
Since the end of 2012 this market has been trending strongly higher gaining over 60% since the end of 2012. Currently this index is trading close to this year’s highs just below the upper weekly Bollinger Bands. Nasdaq has moved sideways since the end of February and has found support from general region of November 2014 high. This has created a sideways move that is fairly similar to the sideways range that lasted from November 2014 to the beginning of February 2015. This suggests to me that this market is not weak but is slowly working its way higher.
Nasdaq, Daily:
Index is trading at the recent highs and therefore at resistance. Recent high at 4441.50 was able to resist the move higher this morning and index reacted lower at the time of writing. Stochastics, RSI and Money Flow index are right at or very close to overbought levels which means that taking long positions at current levels would be too risky. Market is very thin this time of day as the US main trading session is still hours away. This can make market more volatile than usually. The nearest daily support level is at 4320 while the lower Bollinger Bands are between this and the next support at 4259.
Nasdaq, 240 min:
The 4h chart reveals how Nasdaq has been moving higher in an upward channel whit the lower end of the channel coinciding with a pivot support at 4327.50. Now that index has broken the small bearish wedge that had developed overnight the next significant support level is in the region of 4327.50 to 4350 that coincide with the Bollinger Bands and the channel low. Currently price has attracted some buying at 50 period moving average but this should be considered as a minor support and should we get a rally to 4423 resistance and then a turn around to again to the south there is a good chance price will penetrate this support and move to 4350 or so.
Conclusion
In the longer term picture this market is trading close to the year 2000 highs and therefore momentum can be expected to be weaker than it has been over the year 2014. The Q1 2015 trading gives us some indication of what the price action might be like over the rest of the second quarter. Index has been moving sideways and then has broken above the previous resistance levels without huge rallies. Instead the next range has developed just above the previous one. This means that the support levels are close and this market might not be ready to have major correction lower but move gradually higher. As technology is the biggest (heaviest weighted) sector in S&P 500 it is likely that this lack of technical weakness will turn into strength with S&P 500 as well. Now that Fed is more dovish and crude oil has likely bottomed the energy sector stocks are recovering giving additional support for the US stock market.
In short term Nasdaq is weak as it has not been able to move above the resistance level at 4441.50 but rather corrected lower. Even though there has been some buying at the 50 period MA the major support levels are near the rising trend channel bottom. I am looking for a move to 4350 and then follow minor time frames for buy signals. However, firs this market might rally a bit and test the 4423 resistance. Should we get a rally to 4423 resistance and then a reversal there is a good chance price will penetrate the 50 MA support and move to 4350 or so.
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Janne Muta
Chief Market Analyst
HotForex
Disclaimer: Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of purchase or sale of any financial instrument.