Previous:
On Wednesday the euro closed slightly down. The price during the American session updated its maximum from where it returned to 1.1238. The jump upwards was caused by a growth in the euro/pound cross as a response to Carney speaking. The BoE governor announced that the Bank is ready to implement further stimulus if required.
Market expectations:
The euro/dollar is trading up 0.1% or 12 points in Asia in comparison with Wednesday. The pressure on the dollar continues due to the falling likelihood that the Fed will raise rates this September. This likelihood has now dropped to 15%.
The ECB is to convene this Thursday and Draghi is to hold a press conference afterwards. My forecast is for up to 15:30 EET. It’s unclear what Draghi will come out with. It is this man who will set the pace for any euro movements before trade close in Europe.
Day’s News (GMT+3):
- 14:45, ECB interest rate decision;
- 15:30, Canadian July construction permits, manufacturing capacity usage in Q2 of 2016 and housing price index on the primary market in July. ECB press conference. US initial unemployment benefit applications for the week ending 4th September;
- 18:00, US oil reserves for the week ending 4th September;
- 19:20, BoC’s Timothy Lane to speak;
- 22:00, US consumer financing in July.
Technical Analysis:
Intraday forecast: minimum: n/a, maximum: n/a, close: n/a.
Euro/dollar rate on the hourly. Source: TradingView
My expectations for a sideways and daily pinbar rang true. The euro/dollar shifted the maximum to 1.1271 and then returned to 1.1239. As a result, a pinbar formed at the close of the day.
In accordance with the pinbar, we should sell euro when there’s a break in 1.1229. However, today will see Draghi speak and he can cancel all technical signals. Due to this my forecast only runs up to 15:30 GMT+3.
Draghi could have the euro/dollar wobbling in a range of 100 or more points, so trading whilst he speaks is risky. Let the emotions of other traders run wild whilst he speaks and then get involved afterwards.