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MARKET BRIEFING Eurogroup meeting today

Without doubt today's Eurogroup meeting and European Summit will be dominated by one major point of discussion. The Greek debt crisis.

The talks have now entered a critical period due to the time constraints that dictate that a solution must be found in the coming days.

With the Greek Government obliged to make a payment to the IMF of EUR 1.6 billion by June 30 and with the current debt programme ending on the same day, the need to find a solution that satisfies all the parties has taken on a critical importance.

The Greek Government has to offer enough compromises to its creditors so that it can receive the last tranche of EUR 7.2 billion from the European Union. Without these funds it is doubtful the Greek Government will have the means to avert a default to the IMF.

If the Greek Government was to default on its debt obligation to the IMF on June 30 it can be assumed that the European Central Bank boss, Mr. Mario Draghi would pull the plug on Greek banks which are presently suffering the effects on a run as frightened depositors pull their funds.

The ECB has injected large amounts of capital into Greek banks through its ELA mechanism. Without the emergency liquidity it would only be a matter of days for a full scale banking collapse grips this crucial sector of the economy.

The Greek Government having taken on the seriousness of its current financial predicament delivered a new plan to its creditors. No firm details have emerged of the latest Greek plan. From a positive aspect Mr. Martin Selmayr of the European Commission said it is a good basis for progress.

However the Greek Government will have to make large compromises on pensions and the public sector for any deal to be agreed. It is unclear how far the SYRIZA Government will sacrifice the wishes of its rank and file party members and voters to push through a deal.

The Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras will try to limit the fall out of a massive U-turn by pinning his hopes on a review and restructuring of the Greek debt once the current crisis has been averted.

Monday, 22 Jun, 2015 / 11:26

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